Posted on 04/27/2021 10:25:06 AM PDT by CheshireTheCat
....The Imperial College team fully intended for its multi-country model to guide policy. They called on other countries to adopt lockdowns and related NPIs to reduce the projected death toll from the “unmitigated” scenario to “social distancing.” As Ferguson and his colleagues wrote at the time, “[t]o help inform country strategies in the coming weeks, we provide here summary statistics of the potential impact of mitigation and suppression strategies in all countries across the world. These illustrate the need to act early, and the impact that failure to do so is likely to have on local health systems.”
Failure to act, they continued, would lead to near-certain catastrophe....In short, the world needed to go into immediate lockdown in order to avert the catastrophes predicted by their multi-country model.
(Note: Imperial College also included a third possible mitigation scenario for stricter measures on top of general population NPIs, aimed at further isolating elderly and vulnerable people, projecting it could reduce Sweden’s numbers to between 16,192 and 33,878. They further modeled a fourth possible “suppression” scenario consisting of a severe lockdown that would reduce human contacts by 75% for the duration of the pandemic and maintain them for a year or more until population-wide vaccination was achieved. It predicted 14,518 deaths. Sweden clearly did not adopt either of these approaches).
One year later we may now look back to see how Imperial College’s international projections performed, paying closer attention to the small number of countries that bucked his lockdown recommendations. The results are not pretty for Ferguson, and point to a clear pattern of modeling that systematically exaggerated the projected death tolls of Covid-19 in the absence of lockdowns and related NPIs....
(Excerpt) Read more at aier.org ...
He knew his figures were garbage, so he figured he’d go have a snow, but he didn’t expect to get caught.
Snow, not snow.
Snog not snow.
The numbers have been totally garbage since the beginning. Money twisting reporting, testing inaccuracy and out right fraud.
Actually, one of the greatest "successes" of scientific flim-flam in history.
They were never intended to actually stop deaths. They were intended to stop Trump!
American autocorrect does not know snog.
When this analysis lists, “actual deaths” (US = 563,285) they don’t adjust for those patients who died with COVID rather than from COVID.
I would say that the true deaths resulting from the Chinese cold virus vs the projected deaths is off by an order of magnitude far worse than the initial projections.
Even worse, they are already hard at work modelling what the next pandemic response should be!
My mother was right all along.
“Stop watching TV and go outside to play!”
It contains hundreds of arbitrary assumptions based on no empirical evidence whatsoever. It has an unsound design which makes it impossible to test individual components, and it cannot produce the same results twice running - even with the exact same input data.
"Results" are obtained by jiggering various parameters, running the application, selecting desirable outputs, and discarding undesirable outputs. None of the forecasts from this model have been, or can be correct.
Yes, I have worked on that model. It is a mess. Basically un-salvageable. It was cobbled together by a bunch of academics in what amounts to a mutual admiration society.
None of them should be making recommendations which can affect the lives of others.
When Ferguson’s computer model was finally released to the world it was seen to be a basket case. The code was so bad it produced different results with the same data input. Of course, being a product of academia, there were no consequences for those involved for falsely terrorizing the world. Ferguson is a prime example of dishonesty, negligence, and unaccountability.
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