Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Posted on 10/31/2020 11:42:16 AM PDT by entropy12
I just have a feeling its going to be 330.
Assuming Trump carries the states he carried four years ago in which he was leading or effectively tied in the pre-election polls (259 votes), then any of:
MN (10)
WI (10)
MI (16)
PA (20)
or NH (4) plus NV (6)
does the trick (269 and a probable win in the House; or, with ME-2, 270 and an outright win).
This assumes we keep AZ, FL, GA, NC, NE-2 and TX, all of which are in play.
Four years ago, we had to steal at least one state from Hillary (and we stole three).
This year we only have to Get Out the Vote.
We vote, We win.
Trump doesn’t need PA!
Look at your map. If Trump loses PA and wins either WI or MI, he wins, and it’s looking like he will win both. Look at the early returns in WI and MI (NBC election website), R returns actually outnumber D returns by a very healthy margin. Does anyone think terrified D’s will outperform R’s on in-person voting day?
We’re not even talking about the large # of cross-over votes. Trump will win!
I think he would just need one, if my math is correct.
Good comment! My map is just one plausible scenario. I expect more surprises than 2016.
You want me to get wasted on election night with that scenario?
I am sure you are right. Loss of PA brings it down to 278-20=258. So then Trump needs to win 12 EV’s somewhere else.
I don’t think CA would ever go to Trump. I have tons of relatives there, and all die hard democrats. Something in the water.
Here's mine. May one of us be right!!
Looks about right to me. I think the critical pieces in play are Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Of those, PA is the one I worry most about. There’s a lot of city Democrats packed into Philadelphia. Let’s hope they’re all too scared to come out and vote.
If everything goes Trump's way, his max is 333. Can't get more than that, IMHO.
If Urban Blacks in Chicago have had enough of murder and mayhem, maybe even Illinois? And rumor of Oregon being within a point or two.
340 if you swap Pa & Va on your map.
340 if you swap Pa & Va on your map.
His max is 538....
Like your scenario as the most optimistic possible. It will be cause celebre.
But realistically likely loss in either PA or MN or NV or any combo of above 3.
All Trump has to do in central and western PA is keep hammering Biden on his "transitioning away from fossil fuels" bromide. Energy resource extraction is a huge economic engine in that part of the state. And not just coal. Remember the first oil strikes were in Titusville, in NW PA.
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