Posted on 09/26/2020 3:54:07 PM PDT by Roman_War_Criminal
China, which embarked on the mission of becoming a superpower by showing its economic and military might to the world, now may be brought to its knees over a shortage of food.
Reduction in overall domestic food production; a recent deluge in the Yangtze River basin, the rice bowl of China; and a slash in imports, mostly aggravated by deteriorating diplomatic relations, has caused Beijing to hit the panic button.
Chinese President Xi Jinping recently launched the “Clean Plate” campaign to ensure that food supplies do not deplete quickly and bring about a repetition of the 1959 Great Famine, in which millions of people starved to death.
And recent skirmishes along the Sino-Indian border, as well as China’s aggression in the South China Sea, may be Xi’s strategy to divert attention from China’s pending food crisis, just as Mao Zedong did in 1962 to mask the failed Great Leap Forward movement.
The Yangtze River basin badly hit The Yangtze River basin, which accounts for 70 percent of China’s rice production, has seen the worst floods since 1939, damaging millions of acres of cropland.
According to the China Meteorological Administration, the country has experienced a 20 percent increase in heavy rainfall since 1961, taking the water level of more than 400 rivers above the flood control line, with 33 of them reaching record highs.
The heavy rain has ravaged vast swaths of industrial and agricultural land, and experts warn the worst may be yet to come.
Food prices are soaring Soaring prices of agricultural products are stoking food-security jitters in China. According to the China’s National Bureau of Statistics, food prices went up by 13 percent in July, compared to the previous July.
The price of pork rose about 85 percent. On a year-on-year basis, food prices have increased by 10 percent in 2020 — the price of corn is 20 percent higher and the price of soybeans, 30 percent.
According to global financial group Nomura, China’s agricultural GDP could fall by nearly a percentage point in the July-September quarter, rendering losses of $1.7 billion (USD) in the agriculture output.
Chinese brokerage firm Shenwan Hongyuan has anticipated that China could lose 11.2 million tons of grains this year, compared to last year.
Although Xi claimed that the country’s grain output increased this year, imports of grains have gone up almost 22 percent, to 74 million tons in the first half of this year. Imports of wheat went up by a whopping 197 percent during the period.
This has forced Beijing to release 62.5 tons of rice, 50 tons of corn and 760,000 tons of soybeans from its strategic reserve — the amount is significantly higher than last year.
Insect plagues Insect infestations also have caused great damage to China’s food sector.
An invasion of fall armyworms and locusts devoured millions of acres of wheat and corn crops this year.
African swine fever has forced authorities to kill more than 180 million pigs, or about 40 percent of China’s swine population, causing prices to soar. Imports of meat have jumped significantly in just one year.
Political tensions It may come as no surprise that China has spoiled bilateral relations with those nations on whom it depends for its food. Increased hostilities, coupled with pandemic-related disruption in the supply chain and global commodity markets, have created huge barriers for Beijing to meet its domestic consumption demands and ensure enough stock for “rainy days.”
The United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia are among the top exporters of agriculture commodities to China. Despite its dispute over tariffs with the U.S., China still remains heavily dependent on the United States to meet its food demand.
China’s agricultural imports in 2019 were pegged at $13.8 billion (USD), up from $9.1 billion in 2018, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Even during the first quarter of 2020, China imported farm products from the U.S. worth $5.08 billion, while its exports dropped by 17.2 percent in January and February and 6.6 percent in March.
Beijing has shot itself in its foot by banning agricultural products from Australia over its demand for an independent inquiry into the COVID-19 outbreak.
Similarly, farm trade with Canada, New Zealand, Indonesia and India are in the doldrums over different issues, including the potential security threat from Huawei and border skirmishes.
China’s food shortfall will only get worse in coming years unless it undertakes major agricultural reforms, warns the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
A key question is, can China buy enough food to feed its 1.4 billion people if domestic production does not increase and imports are its only mainstay? Surely, China’s food self-sufficiency rate must increase, but the current situation appears to preclude such an improvement.
It is difficult to ascertain the real situation since information coming out of China may not reflect the true severity of the crisis.
However, Xi’s statements on the need for “gastronomic discipline” are reminiscent of similar instructions issued by Mao in 1959, at the beginning of the Great Famine (1958-1962).
A combination of factors indicate that China is at risk for this history to repeat itself — a massive food shortage that could worsen into one of its biggest crises since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.
Soylent Green for the Win \o/
Surely something like feeding their population is no problem for such a formidable world power.
Could be that their priorities are way off.
“Released 62.5 tons of rice, 50 tons of corn and 760,000 tons of soybeans....”
For a country with China’s population, the amount of rice and corn seem low compared to soybeans. I wonder if that was a mis-print for those two amounts?
Eventually something happens that brings those priorities back in line.
If the US does not get our priorities right, we will find ourselves in the same boat.
Well we’re not too far behind IMHO.
The new chinese cookbook is flying off the shelves.
101 ways to wok your dog.
That's right. Remember the sweeping of the supermarket shelves during the early days of the COVID panic? Isopropyl alcohol disappeared; toilet paper disappeared; and meat counters were sorely depleted. It doesn't take much systems disruption to cause trouble. And, China's had a bad combo with the floods, the swine fever, and the other items mentioned in the article.
Also just before the virus hit them, chickens and hogs (Chinese meat staples) were hit with various diseases and most were killed.
Since then they’ve sent their massive fishing fleet to rape the waters were ever they can - including the Galapagos Islands
We had ration books in Cuba. Communism loves ration books.
In almost every instance, famines are caused not by actual insufficient amounts of food, but by failure to make the necessary accommodations to assure a supply line is always available and being utilized by the government authorities involved.
The United States and other food-producing nations around the world have more than enough capacity to take up the shortfall in Chinese harvests, and they are willing to make that largesse available to the Chinese government. But Xi Jinping, in his wisdom, cannot or will not divert resources to meet this internal crisis (largely due to his intransigent actions and diplomatic responses), as that would mean giving up some long-term goals that are inimical to most of the Western world and other Asian nations.
The CCP gave; the Western world COVID-19 Wuhan virus, and they are reaping the whirlwind. I feel not a bit sorry for the CCP, but they have subjected a billion and a half human beings to their own mistakes and vehement bilious tantrum.
Prepper ping
What? No Golden Shower pork?
They may be asking DjT for food. I also haven’t heard if the 3 Gorges Dam has held. If it fails, they’re screwed.
The commies won’t mind much if they lose a billion here, or a billion there.
In your fortune cookie:
“That wasn’t chicken.”
I could see some hefty inflation in Chinese food prices and spot shortages this Winter, but it would surprise me to see actual famine. They have a lot of assets that could be sold, before people start starving.
Belt tightening and substitutions seem to already be occurring.
Real famine is not inconceivable over the next few years though, in some worst case scenarios.
Feeding their population is not really much of a concern. If a few hundred million starve o death, it will be a needed reduction in population. The leaders do hav to wory about what that does to the Mandate of Heaven, and yes, that is a concern in the back of their minds.
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