A lot changed since 2016, and the popular vote will edge up several million for Trump in 2020. The police and firemen vote (with families and retired members) won’t go to the Democrats. Plus you can probably move a million-plus black votes over to him as well.
Now that the thugs are threatening the suburbs, I have to assume that Trump is going to pick up more of the soccer moms as well. The one thing the professor’s model can’t account for is Dem cheating, though. That should be the real concern.
Don’t forget thousands of gun owners in VA.