Posted on 03/28/2020 8:55:30 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
Roughly 98 - 99% of the fatalities are people over 50 years old; just seems that once we develop some herd immunity, we should be able to let people under 50 go back to work, and keep those 70 years and older (mostly retired) at home until the infection rate really eases up.
“Not my job.”
I’ve finished.
Maybe you can get Abel Reyna, former McClennan County Persecutor to publish your analysis??
“I’ve finished.”
You finally got out?
To normalize from death numbers to rate you need a denominator. Google may have a calculator, but without the number of infected in each category what are you going to use to calculate?
Probably because there weren’t as many over 90 people available to be infected.
Total # of peeps in age groups for the whole country is close enough for now.
It’s not deaths. It’s the number hospitalized.
Rate not involved.
Yes, that seems to be missed fairly often in these discussions. Take a look at the corridors in the overloaded hospitals in Italy. Now imagine yourself in that area, young and healthy and bulletproof...oh, but wait, what's that pain in your abdomen? Uh oh, it's acute appendicitis and you're going to need it out or you die of peritonitis. And that's where you're going to have to go. Your surgeon may or may not be available and oh by the way, you stand a very good chance of picking up a case of WuFlu while you're waiting for a routine operation. Overload the hospitals and everyone, not just the old or infirm, is at risk. People die of other things who didn't have to, due to the system overload. That's why flattening the curve is necessary, not to avoid the disease but to avoid overloading the hospital resources.
Great point about how sending non related cases into this WuFlu centers is a recipe for killing folks that would have otherwise survived.
One of the best and easiest ways to die, is to enter a hospital. Hospital caused/related death is like # 4 or 5 highest causes of death in 1st world countries!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#Epidemiology
Italy
Cases 92,472
Deaths 10,023
Recoveries 12,384
And none over 100! Strange bug!
Sex is something like 66% male.
Race is nearly all “white Italian “
Well the old need the most medical care everywhere. If all the over 60s in the usa died in the next few months due to the coronavirus, your insurance premiums would fall drastically
Italy total deaths for the whole country would usually average 1750 per day
So the current 500 per day or so for corona should certainly up the total death rate — even more so in the north. Unless someone has the data to show that TOTAL deaths have not gone up I do believe this is killing a lot of people ahead of time even among the old. It is possible that it is really
Just harvesting those near death anyway In which case total deaths should go BELOW base rates after it subsides. I tend to doubt it but we shall see.
The numbers would be more meaningful if presented in proportion to the total number of people in each arbitrarily chosen age group.
Can you translate that into age adjusted mortality rate?
If you apply U.S. mortality data to Italy (Italy actually has higher life expectancy than the U.S.) and assume age demographics as exactly at the replacement rate (dubious, but this is a first order analysis), with immigration and emigration being demographically neutral, then expected Italian mortality by age, comparted to “additional” deaths attributed to the virus. Additional in quotes because some of these deaths may have occurred in the same year anyway.
0-29 years: 17,001 per year, virus 1
30-39 years: 12,045 per year, virus 18
40-49 years: 20,127 per year, virus 76
50-59 years: 44,887 per year, virus 314
60-69 years: 84,470 per year, virus 971
70-79 years: 162,592 per year, virus 2,967
80-89 years: 264,140 per year, virus 3,344
90 years and older: 188,685, virus 767
Even in Italy, it is not clear that COVID-19 will contribute significantly to the mortality rate.
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