Aramco’s Oil Disruptions Could Last Months: Analyst

Oilprice.com ^ | 09-16-2019 | Juli

[Zhang Fei]

[I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a steep uptick in beheadings over the next month, specifically of people from Hofuf. Production will be normalized long before the last head drops. ]

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Do you think targeting info was provided by satellite photos (Google Earth or commercial sat), drones operated by locals or actual local workers (i.e. from Hofuf)?

[Mariner]

“Production will be normalized long before the last head drops. “

When is that?

I predict April 2020, best case.

For the full 5.7 mil bbl/day.

[PA Engineer]

I wouldn't be surprised if the facilities were scouted along with commercially available imaging. One of the most ubiquitous sighting are Bedouins driving white Toyota pickup trucks.

Tribal loyalties are a fact of life there. I would be surprised if there was not internal support.

Had they not touched the Khurais GOSP, I think it would have been harder to analyze.

[PA Engineer]

Have you worked in Kingdom?

[Mariner]

No.

But I drove by it a few times and it looked miserable. Everything in that part of the world sucks.