Posted on 08/20/2018 6:37:13 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of will not be able to read this all the way through.
A report CBS probably wishes it never let see the light of day, says its polling “expert” doesn’t see a blue wave; in fact, a careful reading of the CBS report says a red wave may very well be on its way.
CBS has adopted the LA Times/USC Dornsife method of polling by compiling a large sample of respondents who are willing to be polled periodically on a continuous basis.
What CBS found is that there is no groundswell of voters itching to vote Democrat in the 25 “Battleground” Congressional districts it has focused on.
To give the left every chance to prevail, CBS has been polling only in Republican held seats identified by the left leaning Charlie Cook as “toss ups.”
Of the 25 seats, Cook assigns a partisan edge of +5 for Democrats in one and +1 for Democrats in another.
There are four seats rated EVEN by Cook.
There are 19 districts Cook gives a partisan edge of between one point and 3 points to Republicans.
In 6 districts Cook assigns a partisan edge of 4 or more to Republicans.
This means these districts already vote Republican and already have a Republican incumbent so naming only them as “toss ups” is based on wishful thinking.
In a recently posted article the New York Times wrote about the likelihood of two Minnesota Congressional districts flipping from Democrat to Republican.
It also added there are two Nevada seats, one Pennsylvania seat, one Florida seat, and one Arizona seat that could flip from Democrat to Republican as well.
But the bad news for those looking for something to be afraid of doesn’t stop there.
Last week the Politico posted a story that breathlessly described how the Democrats were “cutting into the GOP’s longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections.
They called this “another encouraging sign for the minority party’s hopes of winning the House in November.”
That’s where the good news for Democrats ended.
The next paragraphs told of a “big jump” in Democrat enthusiasm.
In effect, it said Democrats were now ONLY down 9 points to Republicans in enthusiasm at 75/66 in the “very motivated to vote” category.
After that the “report” reverted to the type of murky semi-sensical language the Democrat controlled media uses to hide the truth.
The writer immediately contradicted himself by saying Democrats are just 3 points behind at 75/72 in enthusiasm.
So, the question becomes why talk about being behind 75/66 first when the real numbers are 75/72?
Answer: Because the 75/66 number is the true one.
On top of this the Democrat generic lead is gone (yes, they are up by 2.25% but that is way off what they need to win back the House); and Black support for Donald Trump is at 36% in the Rasmussen survey.
There is no question that this will translate into an advantage for Republicans. African Americans want the same of life that everyone else does.
They want a job and a growing economy to raise a family in.
Clearly Blacks are beginning to recognize it is Trump’s policies that are bringing them closer to their goals.
They will support the candidates Trump endorses.
So I believe you said an 11 seat pickup for the GOP in the Senate? How many House seats are you predicting they pick up?
Why, Hillary is even leading in Texas! It is going to be a historic blowout, Intell ya!!
Trump's putting himself on the ballot by choosing a candidate. Trump chose DeSantis over Putnam in Florida and DeSantis pulled ahead...
In Texas, O’Rourke is running hard, while Ted Cruz hasn’t really bothered to start campaigning yet.
Cruz probably needs to fire his campaign staff and get some folks who can get it in gear. The only thing showing on his events page is a stop for lunch at a barbecue joint in Conroe.
ping
Excellent...
Watch Oregon’s Governor race....
I’m motivated to vote and I will dutifully show up and vote...but unfortunately I’m stuck in North Carolina’s 12th district which means our US Representative is Alma Adams - one of the very worst people in the entire US Congress and there’s almost zero chance she’ll get voted out of office in this district. ugh.
No, it didn’t, did it. The lights went out in the Democrat party a long time ago.
He was in Lubbock last week. Beto O’Rouke has the luxury to run all over the state what with the State legislature not in session.
Well said. I think you succinctly nailed it.
I think it would be helpful for Trump to campaign 5-6 days a week in October as he said he would. I also support a massive media blitz with him appealing to All Republicans and Independents to get out and defeat the socialist Democrat candidates.
The Rs can help themselves enormously if they run ads featuring Mad Maxine and the mayor from Philly who dances with delight at the thought of sanctuary cities.
Anyone who thinks talking about an edge in an election pointing toward Republicans is going to dampen Republican enthusiasm to vote and make Republicans apathetic is dealing in superstition not retail politics.
The generic polls are up just as I said they would be. The problem is a 4 1/2 point swing in 5 days MUST be the result of either a major political problem or major bad news for Republicans or it is faked polls. It is not up to me to answer for the 4 1/2 point swing in the total absence of any bad news for Republicans, these things do not happen in a vacuum, it is up to polling companies to do so. To the contrary there has been nothing but good economic and social news for Republicans for weeks. “It’s the Economy Stupid” doesn’t only work for Democrats.
I have not read the internals of these latest polls but I can tell you the last time Quinnipiac had Democrats up 9 in generics they over polled Democrats by 20 points.
The real measure is enthusiasm and there has been only a very small movement up for Democrats in “very enthusiastic” to vote responses sine May. It was an 11 point Republican advantage then and now it is 9. Yet even is subject to a margin of error.
If the fact that Cook ONLY calls Republican seats “toss ups” doesn’t tell you he is a fake and Wrong Way Larry Sabato’s Mini Me, you are not paying attention.
If blacks vote for the gop in these numbers and IF the Roman Catholic vote stays for the gop....then the gop holds/expands the House and Senate.
Hard to disagree with the GOP’ers being a joke. Unless they go #MAGA, Trump could very well be the last R president.
Reverse psychology? We need to get everyone to the polls and keep the enthusiasm UP!!!
It is faked polls. The most recent CNN poll of the generic ballot showed an 11 point lead for the Dems when every recent poll had it at about 2-4 percent. That skewed the average considerably.
“Still, get out and vote as though the nation were hanging in the balance.”
The fate of the nation IS hanging in the balance. The most important midterm election of our lifetime is in less than three months.
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