Posted on 08/03/2018 7:57:52 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Since demographic survey data indicating disaster for Senate Democrats is coming almost daily; and contradictory “polls” are coming in just as fast, a look at voter fundamentals is in order.
I stand by my prediction of 11 Democrat seats being picked up by Republicans in November.
So far here is where we stand. November’s Democrat sure losers are:
Nelson Fla; Donnelly Indiana; McCaskill Missouri; Tester Montana; Heitkamp North Dakota and Manchin West Virginia.
I have explained why they are going to lose before and nothing has improved for them. To the contrary things have gotten worse for each of these Democrats because the economy is booming and voters who supported Donald Trump on his promises have seen those promises come true.
Moving toward defeat in November:
Sherrod Brown Ohio; he is up 6 with a 90% name recognition versus a Republican with a 35% name recognition in a now very solid Republican state.
Bob Menendez New Jersey; he has fallen into a tie with a well-financed aggressive Republican who is saying everything right to make New Jersey feel right about throwing out a man they know is a crook.
Races worth watching:
Keep in mind that the Democrat senators in this list are no different than those who are already done for This is because of Democrat lock step voting and in some cases being in states adjacent to losing states so they will be facing voters with the same demographic makeup.
The watch list is Wisconsin; Pennsylvania; New Mexico; and Virginia.
All the fundamentals point the way to Victory for Senate Republicans in November.
The November Mid-term elections will be the first of Donald Trump’s three re-elections because he will make it about him and win.
The Chicago Sun Tribune summed up the power of Donald Trump’s coattails by saying, “I left the hall thinking: Donald Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020. The Democrats don’t have anyone who can touch him. Bank on it. Don’t hate me for being the one to tell you.”
This is absolutely true and with Trump intending to campaign 6 and 7 days a week for the last two months the obvious conclusion is the Democrats don’t have anyone in the House or the Senate who “can touch him,” either.
In 2016 a record 84% of White Evangelicals voted and a very large number of them voted for Trump. They watched videos in their churches and were bused to the polls.
They will vote for Trump's endorsed candidates in 2018 because what these voters wanted they got in Judge Gorsuch and the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh. They like what they see.
Does anyone really believe the Evangelicals will not stream to the polls in even larger numbers to vote for Republicans Trump endorses?
Trump has successfully reached out to Black and Hispanic voters. His approval numbers with Blacks runs from 16% to 29% (yesterday’s Rasmussen) plus even the usually faked Survey Monkey consistently report Blacks now self-identify as Democrats at just 56%.
Combined with the fact that Black voter participation in 2016 was down in North Carolina Pennsylvania and Michigan, this spells very big problems for Democrats.
Hispanic approval of Trump is now at a point where it is a “wash.” In many states it is not big enough to help but too small to hurt his candidates.
The Republican National Committee has huge amounts of cash ($213 million at last count a month ago) and is using it to fund field offices in 27 states. That means that they have their own list of vulnerable Democrats.
Those field offices are already run by 500 paid workers who are being supported by 15,000 registered volunteers.
By contrast when Trump won in 2016 he had just 5,000 registered volunteers.
When Trump asks for more volunteers it will blow the doors off Republican campaign headquarters across the country.
2016 exit polls showed 93% of Trump’s voters agreed America was on the wrong track. Many of them were White working class men without college degrees.
White men without college degrees voted for Trump 72/23. That’s an astounding 49-points! It Broke Ronald Reagan’s record of winning these voters by 11 points in 1980.
These voters are Trump’s hidden supporters and the “political experts” know that. They didn’t answer pollsters then and they are not answering them now. They are too busy working.
As August unfolds there will be more data to consider and more predictions to make.
Are they saying Senate Candidates will be dragged kicking and screaming to the Winner’s Circle?
Don’t forget to factor in 50,000 sealed indictments in the legal system to take down more criminals in the political system. I expect an October surprise form the GOOP this year.
Yep, people who are out working, are not answering the phone to be in a poll. They are working.
I haven’t heard much talk of voter turnout. But historically, voter turnout isower in mid term elections, esp. among those who tend to vote Democrat.
I kinda think this will be the way it goes. You see trends of blacks who’ve dumped the Democratic Party. You see trends of people who’ve gotten jobs in the past two years.
It wouldn’t surprise me if AZ/Tenn return as Republicans, and seven Democratic Senate seats flip over. I think even the Michigan race is fairly close and capable of flipping to the GOP.
The problem with polling midterms is they re doing it wrong.
They have to poll the individual districts and states (and only the states with Senate seats up for grabs). National polls mean nothing.
Then of course, they need to remove the fudge-left algorithms since clearly telling Conservatives “oh the polls are against you so stay home” just does the opposite.
And hopefully sometime after Labor Day . . . The RNC along with R House and R Senate campaign finance apparatus along with the states and the candidates will start airing, hopefully carpet bombing the D’s, will strong hard hitting ads.
The D’s have been providing ample ammunition against themselves for over 2 years now.
And lastly, hopefully the R candidates won’t be meekly going after their opponents . . . and will have actually learned something from Trump . . . and I also think Ronna McDaniel isn’t your usual RNC above the fray kinda Chairwoman, she won’t be like Priebus or Steele and will fight . . . UNLIKE her Uncle Mitt.
I hope.
White men without college degrees voted for Trump 72/23. That’s an astounding 49-points!... Those voters didn’t answer pollsters then and they are not answering them now. They are too busy working.
* * *
Great, the working class — not elites and government dependents — are driving our elections now.
Now that’s Deplorable — even Irredeemable — Political Power! GO TRUMP!
That is exactly what is happening. President Trump has far more enthusiasm for an overall House and Senate victory for the Republicans in November 2018, than almost anybody else in Republican leadership positions. Paul Ryan doesn’t care, and Mitch McConnell seems uncomfortable with being Senate Majority Leader.
And the Koch Brothers don’t seem all that ambitious about an overall Republican victory either. Either they back Republicans who seem less driven to achieve, and have preemptively surrendered to their Democrat rival, or if by some fluke they DO eke out an electoral victory, they immediately go into “compromise mode”, virtually renouncing just about every talking point they ran on.
Kicking and screaming all the way, no doubt.
Note about Florida:
Scott has a major issue brewing with red tide and algae killing sea life along the coast.
He is going to have a major campaign weapon used against him if he doesn’t start doing “something” about it.
Everyone is outraged and blaming state politicians.
People arent’ going to vote for him when it appears he has done jack about the situation.
That being said, I will be voting for him, but the situation is the worst I’ve ever seen. Everyone down here is blaming industry and state government.
http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=133164
Trump’s Approval From Black Voters Nearly Doubles! 2020 Victory Appears Inevitable!
but the situation is the worst I’ve ever seen. Everyone down here is blaming industry and state government.
..........................................................
Not the first time we’ve had red tide. NOT everyone is blaming Scott. Scott has done too much good regarding Florida’s economic health and job creation to be flushed over an ecological situation. It IS the economy which will decide this election and Scott is on the side of Trump.
1. You have 25 Dems up for election in the Senate and 8 Republicans. 10 of those Dems are running in states that voted for Trump. Let the other 15 win, and have the Dems lose in 6 or 7 of the 10 Trump states, and you have a landslide. This would be the case even with a lackluster guy like Gerry Ford as President (and he was a good man, just without much charisma).
2. I know that this is just my very limited and unscientific experience, but I know of not one single person who voted for Trump who doesn’t still back him very strongly. The forces arrayed against the man (and, thus, against those who voted for him) are unchanged, whereas he has fulfilled numerous promises made during his campaign while simultaneously being subjected to an obvious political hit-job.
3. The economy is doing very well. Not perfectly, mind you, but very well...with few significant signs of anything being able to change that in the next couple of years. The fence-sitters who don’t usually give a damn about politics, and who vote their wallets and pocketbooks, have noticed this.
4. A large part of the Dem Party has just about literally gone off of the deep end. Their entire policy position seems to be composed of three items: 1) Free $hit for all of our constituents (most notably illegal aliens); 2) Take away guns and tax cuts from the law-abiding and the productive; and 3) WE HATE TRUMP!!!!!! - and we’re gonna impeach him if we get control of the House. Such a platform offers literally nothing for most people, and more to the point stands FOR nothing. If all you are is AGAINST something or someone, you are going to fail.
Everything seems to be aligning itself for a Republican route of the Dems in November. I will not rest on my laurels, I will be voting and (possibly) contributing to a couple of campaigns (VERY selectively, as I don’t really want to help an RINOs). Everyone whom I know who voted for Trump is similarly GOING to vote, even if they have to crawl over broken glass to do so. The 2016 election was the first round in the battle against the Deep State - and 2018 is still an early battle, as these tyrant-wannabees are not giving up easily. This is a long-term cultural war, and I believe that most people out there understand this.
It makes sense: The man and the party that love America and want her to prosper vs. the party that burns the US flag and wants America to be Venezuela.
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