I believe self-driving truck convoys will be here in the 5-10 year window, and there’ll not be another human driver left in 15 years.
The amount of money being invested in this tech is astounding, FAR, FAR more than robot cars...due to the cost and liability of human drivers.
And they’re close.
In the 3-5 year window we’ll see the first AI trucks on the road. Making money.
Personally I hate the idea. I use computers daily, but I don’t trust them with my life. I do trust me with my life and that of my family. I used to drive buses and people trusted me with the lives of 48 kids at a time.
Even with all the money invested, I don’t believe any machine can possibly make all the millions of micro-decisions a human does while driving.
The biggest constraint I see is that it will be decades before the trucking industry ever gets to the point where it is willing to take the driver out of the truck entirely. All of the technology they’re testing now is built around a “no hands on the wheel” operation where there is still a driver in the cab anyway. That makes it a tougher financial lift to justify the new technology in the first place.
As someone who has lived most of their life in rural America, I doubt it. Too many variables including unforeseen situations. Hijacking is one. Once a crew has spotted a computer driven truck, all they need to do is actuate the trailer brakes. The system will shut down due to an unsafe condition allowing the crew access to the cargo. Insurance companies will not be amused. Trucking companies go out of their way to minimize costs. There are many times when a human driver can save money.
Picture I-80 in the winter with snow blowing across the road. Time for chains! Who’s going to do that?