Fromt the article above:
“There is NO WAY in hell that this inexperienced guy was able to hit 500+ people, at a down sloping range of approximately 250-350 yards using a make-shift weapon modified to shot automatically. Here are some reasons why and you can check with other experts to verify my points.”
“1. It was dark and no matter how well lit, there are many shadows to hide in.
2. Simple a ‘sear’ (pronounced see-er) modification would have only permitted one entire magazine to shoot all at once with no select fire (being able to start and stop).
3. There are some devices (like AutoGlove and Bump Fire) that can simulate full automatic fire, but they cannot be used accurately or effectively.
4. Even if the shooter was able to somehow obtain a full normal functioning automatic rifle, anyone with military experience can tell you that the rifles are difficult to control when firing more than 3 round bursts – especially a .308 or AK47 type. This is because the rifle will uncontrollably rise if automatic fire is constant.
5. After the first 15 or so seconds, the crowd scattered and took cover.
6. I don’t have a count of how many pieces of empty brass (fired rounds) they have recovered, but knowing how many shots were fired compared to how many people were hit will tell you the hit ratio. If this guy did this in 20 seconds, we needed him desperately in Afghanistan!
7. To fire 500 aimed shoots and swap out magazines would have taken him about 15-20 minutes, and there is no way that each shot would have hit someone – more than likely would have missed.”
“To put in perspective…. Say a guy purchases an expensive bolt action rifle in .308 with a nice expensive scope. Without experience, someone would have to mount the scope for him and do a rough sighting in with a laser. This individual then takes this rifle to a range in broad daylight with no stress and using a bench rest and breathing techniques and all the time in the world and fires at a target 300 yards. It is possible, but doubtful if that person could hit a large refrigerator at that range UNLESS they had LOTS OF PRACTICE and EXPERIENCE. For every 1 minute (1/60th of a degree) of angle change at the rifle, the bullet would vary by 3 inches at 300 yards. For this untrained guy to be wildly shooting with a high heart rate at nighttime? Well, bullets would be going everywhere!”
I fully understand that the estimates of 573 killed and wounded, and the police statement that all the shooting took place in four and half minutes, may be off. These figures may not be precise.
Nevertheless, they are a good and proper starting point. And even allowing for later adjustments, the evidence for multiple shooters and against a lone amateur like Paddock is stunning.
Add to that the fact yesterday the Sheriff said his first target was the airplane fuel 2000 yards away - the first long burst was to make that explode somehow.
So take out 100 rounds and 30 seconds of firing for that.
Antifa? Or do you think Soros was in on it somehow? Maybe the BLM crowd wanting to take out a “bunch of country music loving rednecks”?
OR... lets play this out. Somehow, in conjunction with the hotel maintenance staff, someone was firing from other windows in the hotel, and managed to repair those windows before anyone noticed.
This thing stinks to high heaven.
I have not read anywhere that all 573 victims were injured or killed by gunfire. We know there were at least 58 fatalities, but we don't know how many people were hit by gunfire, versus how many were injured or killed by trampling.
It seems that some people are assuming that all 573 victims were hit by gunfire. To my knowledge, that has not been established by official statements.
Many of the injured were injured by the rush to exit, by ricochets, or were cases of a single bullet passing through more than one person. The crowd was very packed. The aimed shots were at a group of 22,000 people standing shoulder to shoulder. There is not as much need for accuracy in this situation.
He was shooting at a tightly-packed concert audience of around 20,000 people. It wouldn't matter if the gun's aim went all over the place, he would be hitting SOMEBODY.
"There is NO WAY in hell that this inexperienced guy was able to hit 500+ people, at a down sloping range of approximately 250-350 yards using a make-shift weapon modified to shot automatically. Here are some reasons why and you can check with other experts to verify my points."
"1. It was dark and no matter how well lit, there are many shadows to hide in.
2. Simple a 'sear' (pronounced see-er) modification would have only permitted one entire magazine to shoot all at once with no select fire (being able to start and stop).
3. There are some devices (like AutoGlove and Bump Fire) that can simulate full automatic fire, but they cannot be used accurately or effectively.
4. Even if the shooter was able to somehow obtain a full normal functioning automatic rifle, anyone with military experience can tell you that the rifles are difficult to control when firing more than 3 round bursts – especially a .308 or AK47 type. This is because the rifle will uncontrollably rise if automatic fire is constant.
5. After the first 15 or so seconds, the crowd scattered and took cover.
6. I don’t have a count of how many pieces of empty brass (fired rounds) they have recovered, but knowing how many shots were fired compared to how many people were hit will tell you the hit ratio. If this guy did this in 20 seconds, we needed him desperately in Afghanistan!
7. To fire 500 aimed shoots and swap out magazines would have taken him about 15-20 minutes, and there is no way that each shot would have hit someone – more than likely would have missed."
"To put in perspective…. Say a guy purchases an expensive bolt action rifle in .308 with a nice expensive scope. Without experience, someone would have to mount the scope for him and do a rough sighting in with a laser. This individual then takes this rifle to a range in broad daylight with no stress and using a bench rest and breathing techniques and all the time in the world and fires at a target 300 yards. It is possible, but doubtful if that person could hit a large refrigerator at that range UNLESS they had LOTS OF PRACTICE and EXPERIENCE. For every 1 minute (1/60th of a degree) of angle change at the rifle, the bullet would vary by 3 inches at 300 yards. For this untrained guy to be wildly shooting with a high heart rate at nighttime? Well, bullets would be going everywhere!"
I fully understand that the estimates of 573 killed and wounded, and the police statement that all the shooting took place in four and half minutes, may be off. These figures may not be precise.
Nevertheless, they are a good and proper starting point. And even allowing for later adjustments, the evidence for multiple shooters and against a lone amateur like Paddock is stunning.
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While I am quite certain that we haven't been told everything that the police/FBI know at this point (and there are actually some good reasons for that), lots of the points made above are simply wrong.
1. Re: it was dark - understand that the target was lit up very well. That there were shadows to hide in only matters with automatic fire if the shooter didn't also aim in the general direction of those shadows. I believe that the shooter KNEW that people would try to hide in shadows, and didn't avoid shooting in those areas - meaning that hiding in the shadows offered only concealment, but not cover (i.e. physical protection). Further, for quite a long period of time, people were being shot and NO ONE knew what was going on (I personally think that this is the period of time - 30 seconds to a minute - when most of the fatalities occurred). Additionally, he had checked out the layout of the concert and its exits and, apparently, one of his early bursts of FA (or simulated FA) fire was directed at one of the exits, so as to keep the crowd in the target area (which was essentially an open field with no cover OR concealment).
2. No one has said squat about there being an auto sear, or any other modification to the trigger system - other than the bump-fire stock(s).
3. Bump-fire stocks can, with practice, be used quite effectively and (for near FA firing) fairly accurately. The open question is: "how much practice did he have with these particular weapons?" Another fact: accuracy, when firing FA at an area target, is not really that important.
4. Re: the rising muzzle of a firearm when firing FA (or near-FA) - this is certainly a factor. However, anyone with even a little experience or a little bit in the way of research skills (or both) could have figured out that you can counter that in 3 ways: first, attach something to the muzzle end to weigh it down a bit, so as to lessen the muzzle rise; second, have a muzzle brake, which LOTS of semi-autos come with from the factory, to reduce muzzle rise; or, third, start firing a FA fusillade at the lower end of your target area, and allow the muzzle rise to automatically (no pun intended) put lead on target toward the higher end of your target area near the middle and end of the fusillade.
5. See #1, above. Some did, many didn't. There was: 1) so much confusion that many didn't know what was going on, or that fleeing was necessary; 2) the shooter targeted one (the only?) exit so as to force his intended victims back into the open field and prevent fleeing; and 3) many people, even if attempting to flee, were tripped/trampled, and remained in the target area.
6. I agree that a brass count is needed - and has probably already been done. I'd like to see that number released, broken down by caliber. FWIW, he did NOT do all of this in 20 seconds. By all reports, the firing occurred over a period of 10-12 minutes.
7. "To fire 500 aimed shoots and swap out magazines would have taken him about 15-20 minutes, and there is no way that each shot would have hit someone – more than likely would have missed."
Excuse me, but BEE ESS!!! FIRST, he was firing bullet hoses - there was NO aiming for individual targets, only a relatively large, open area. SECOND, he had 60- and 100-round magazines. Even with just 60-rounders, he'd have had to swap mags only 8 times to get off 500 shots. 15-20 minutes, when your cyclic rate of fire is roughly 400-500 rounds/minute, and a mag swap takes MAYBE 10 seconds, is absurd. THIRD, he apparently had about a dozen semi-auto/bump-fire modified rifles - which anyone who was even a LITTLE sensible and who engaged in a LITTLE planning (and he engaged in a LOT of planning) would have had ready with fully-loaded 60- or 100-round mags (and, by all reports, this is EXACTLY what he did). Thus, NO MAG SWAPS NEEDED for the first dozen or so fusillades, reducing the time necessary to get off 500 shots. FYI, I think that he fired off many more than 500 rounds - after all, roughly 600 separate people were either wounded or killed. We're probably looking at 1,500 shots, minimum - ALL of which were quite possible in 10-12 minutes with FA firing and very large magazines.
8. That whole paragraph regarding sighting in and practicing with a .308 bolt-action rifle with a scope is pretty much irrelevant. He was firing FA/simulated FA, and DID NOT NEED TO AIM. FA weapons are bullet hoses, intended to deny an area to enemy troops. You use the same technique to hose down an area with a FA weapon that firemen use to hose down a large fire - gradual sweeping of the area from one side to the other...NO AIMING REQUIRED, except to be in the general area of the large target.
Again, there are a LOT of questions - starting with "Why does a 64-year-old retired accountant become a mass-murderer?" There are also a lot of questions about the weapons used, the number of bullets fired, the amount of time involved in firing, etc., etc. I'm NOT saying that there was a 2nd shooter, NOR am I saying that there WASN'T - we have to have more information (which the police/FBI may/should already have) in order to reach any conclusion (or to call BS on the conclusions that the investigators give us).
My discussion above regarding the list of objections you quoted shows that whoever wrote them has no clue as to what happened, nor about the nature of this murder spree, nor about how weapons operate.
There were an estimated 22,000 people in the crowd.
Simply firing high-powered rounds toward the center of the crowd could easily hit 500 people. Some shots probably hit more than one person at first. Simply spraying the crowd is all he needed, no need to have to aim. THe crowd “scattered”, but a crowd of standing-room only people don’t really scatter, they mostly push each other to the ground, and being on the ground is no defense when the shooter is 32 stories high.
I would be surprised if even half of his shots missed targets in that environment.
“1. It was dark and no matter how well lit, there are many shadows to hide in.
Response- 22000 people in about a three or four acre area- that’s a dense target area. Assuming he was firing with a FA or even a bump fire stock equipped AR 15 223/556, off a bag or bipod etc, using 60 and 30 round magazines, rotating between 12 optic or dot equipped rifles, a reasonably astute person with a modicum of experience indeed could fire a few magazines before the effects could really be appreciated by the concert goers- loud music, the press of the crowd, people begin dropping, folks start saying “WTF?”, eventually in a minute or two or four (about 6, 60 round mags worth of time), the music stops, gunfire is heard and crowd start reacting-shock at first, then disorientation a to where to go/ where the fire is coming from, more bursts into a the milling crowd that is beginning to react/panic/take cover/ stand there with mouths open.
2. Simple a ‘sear’ (pronounced see-er) modification would have only permitted one entire magazine to shoot all at once with no select fire (being able to start and stop).
Response- true enough, but we know that the weapons were bump-fire stock equipped, so that is irrelevant, no?
3. There are some devices (like AutoGlove and Bump Fire) that can simulate full automatic fire, but they cannot be used accurately or effectively.
Response- I can assure you that FA fire from a bipod-equipped supported AR/M16 is very controllable in regards to an area target- The military uses FA fires to suppress an area so another element can maneuver against it. In this case, FA fire/simulated FA fire was simply used to murder folks. Indeed, the shooter could have used precise aimed fires, but that would be slow and actually not effective since the effect apparently was not an assassination of a specific target, but mass murder for terror effect.
4. Even if the shooter was able to somehow obtain a full normal functioning automatic rifle, anyone with military experience can tell you that the rifles are difficult to control when firing more than 3 round bursts – especially a .308 or AK47 type. This is because the rifle will uncontrollably rise if automatic fire is constant.
Response- True enough from unsupported firing positions against a point target, but actually very effective against an area target and groups of persons vice a specific individual. even heavier calibers like 762 Nato/762x 54 RUS are very controllable from heavier weapon systems like M240, RPK/Ms etc. He used, from the pictures, 223/556 caliber rifles.
5. After the first 15 or so seconds, the crowd scattered and took cover.
Response- see #1 above- I estimated it took two to three minutes for the crowd to begin to scatter and react ONCE they decided they were being shot, and I estimate it took that long for them to realize they were being shot, so 3-4 minutes under fire with either no awareness or inability to react due to the press of the crowd.
6. I don’t have a count of how many pieces of empty brass (fired rounds) they have recovered, but knowing how many shots were fired compared to how many people were hit will tell you the hit ratio. If this guy did this in 20 seconds, we needed him desperately in Afghanistan!
Response- again, he had, I believe, about 3-4 minutes where he was indeed shooting into a fish bowl. 200 effective RndsPerMin ( including time for reload/rifle swap) X 3 minutes=600 rounds.... We don’t need folks like him in FG, we need them on death row, or better yet, cooling off in the morgue. Also, rounds passing through limbs etc likely caused secondary wounds, bullets fragmenting on the pavement and ricocheting caused additional wounds. Hit ratio is pretty much irrelevant when sardines in a fish bowl are the target.
7. To fire 500 aimed shoots and swap out magazines would have taken him about 15-20 minutes, and there is no way that each shot would have hit someone – more than likely would have missed.”
Response- HE DIDN’T fire aimed shots, he sprayed an area full of crowded folks who had little or no awareness for up to several minutes (with optic sighted supported weapons from an almost ideal location), then another lengthy period of time (relative to amount of incoming rounds) to continue to engage the slowly moving but still tight crowd ( think slinky effect of traffic on the crowed freeway) to fire rapid bursts of fairly well aimed area fires into a target rich environment.
Summary- Indeed, given the dynamics of the noise/ crowd/area constraints and time to awareness, he had lots of time to kill 58 and wound 500+, the bastard was rather efficient in his dastardly, cowardly task. He fired apparently for 11 minutes. with regular bursts with moderate pauses for him to swap rifles/reload. He did not have to hurry a bit. I personally don’t think he was either an amateur ( maybe not a Spartan type) or even not alone, at least in the planning and logistics if not the actual rampage.
That assumes individual targeting. He was not sniping, he was spraying a crowd.
3. There are some devices (like AutoGlove and Bump Fire) that can simulate full automatic fire, but they cannot be used accurately or effectively.
There is no need for accuracy when spraying a crowd- fish in a barrel.
4. Even if the shooter was able to somehow obtain a full normal functioning automatic rifle, anyone with military experience can tell you that the rifles are difficult to control when firing more than 3 round bursts – especially a .308 or AK47 type. This is because the rifle will uncontrollably rise if automatic fire is constant.
So he starts low and walks fire outward, using the weapon's characteristic behavior to advantage.
5. After the first 15 or so seconds, the crowd scattered and took cover.
What cover? IIUC, it was a large, fenced in, open area.
7. To fire 500 aimed shoots and swap out magazines would have taken him about 15-20 minutes, and there is no way that each shot would have hit someone – more than likely would have missed.”
Assuming aimed shots, again. Fragmenting rounds, ricochets, through-and-through rounds hitting a second victim, fragmenting or ricocheting, debris kicked up by impacting rounds, slip and falls and collisions while running, trampling in the panic...all causing injuries.
Visualizing the geometry may help (distances suggested are 1/30 the reported shooter’s distance and the venue’s dimensions, so the angles will be the same):
Imagine sitting on top of a city bus (or a tour bus with an open top) in a parking lot, 10 feet in the air.
Now imagine you are looking down at a single parking spot, four or five spots over from where the bus is.
Your goal is to shoot that parking spot or within two feet of that parking spot.
The target area for this shooter looked similar to the target area you are visualizing. Even standing on the ground in a parking lot, a spot four to five spaces over is a big area. Looking down from 10 feet up, it would be hard to miss.
You don’t need aimed shots, not with 22,000 people in that venue. All you need is to know which way the weapon pulls on full auto. Pull the trigger to start in one corner, let the recoil sweep it to the other corner, and then release the trigger. Precision shooting with aimed shots (good weapon, great optics, and that over-watch position) would have killed a lot more people in the 5 minutes he was shooting for effect - we’re lucky he chose a full-auto imitation instead of real sniper shots! Instead of aimed shots, he tried a faster but far less accurate “spray and pray”, so he only got about 58 fatal hits.
There were places to hide, but there were also people out in the open, moving slowly in a straight line or not moving at all because they were behind the crowd. 22,000 people don’t “scatter” in an area that small, nor can many of them take cover. He always had targets. There could certainly be more to the story, but there is no reason one person with moderate rifle experience could not have done this.
I understood that only a hundred or so of the injured suffered gunshot wounds.