rest:
Secondly, all major polls so far have been done online. As we know, online polls are mostly completed by people who spend longer on the computer that those who don’t (i.e. young people). And while Le Pen does have a lot of support among young voters, it is likely to be the older people in the rural towns who actually go out and vote.
Thirdly, demographics of those who were actually entered into the final polling data-set, are decided by the people who run the polls. It is not a case of 100 people asked, 100 people’s views tallied.
Fourthly, all polls to date have given a 100% total. There are likely a large amount of people who have yet decided who they will vote for (this is especially true under the French Ballotage system, as most people’s favoured candidates have been knocked out). How have these votes been proportioned?
Fifth, much like the Brexit and Trump wins, surprises do happen regardless of what poll data suggests. In the run up to Trump’s victory, it was difficult to find a single poll that gave him the win; in fact, it was considered by “polling experts” 98% likely that Clinton would win. For Brexit, it was a very similar situation.
Sixth, the “shy voter”. Despite MSM claims that this is debunked, the Shy Voter theory is still very much active…It just does not apply to those who vote for mainstream candidates. Because, I you choose to vote for the mainstream candidate, what do you have to be shy about? Who will ostracize or judge you for your choice? No one. But with more radical candidates, it is very much a reality.
But this is not to say she will win. Many people are suggesting that the World Governments and the European Union in particular will “not let it happen”. She is however, very popular despite the MSM spin. It could be a lot closer than we anticipate.
* My personal prediction is 52% to Macron.
I hope Le Pen wins. Regardless of all the years of dropped rifle and cheese eating surrender monkey jokes, I seriously doubt there is a single person who wants watch France turn into Franceghanistan, or melt into the amorphous blob of EU controlled by unelected (very wealthy) beuracrats
I can’t believe that there is not some election chicanery occurring. I wonder about those 500k duplicate ballots mailed to overseas French, the ones judged likely to vote overwhelmingly for the Establishment candidate. Were they just for the First Round? the second round?