Useful timeline for a general framework. There are some details that could be filled in to
expand it--a few that come to my mind are Russia's increase of its uranium production from 2005 on and growing acquisition of U.S. uranium assets after 2009, Putin's 2007 announcement of a new arms race in response to NATO's moves towards an Eastern European missile shield (I would suggest that the current crisis represents a resuming of tensions over this underlying issue), the 2007 diplomatic fallout between Britain and Russia over the Litvinenko assassination, the escalation of Russian-NATO tensions following the Russo-Georgian War of 2008, the economic weakening of the West by the Great Recession and by the rising price of Russian natural gas, the subsequent efforts of the EU to liberate itself from dependence on Russian energy, and the impact of falling gas prices on Russia's economy and Putin's political position (for example
Crashing oil prices could crush Vladimir Putin (October 2014) and
The US is headed for a natural gas price war with Russia (February 2016)--but the gist is on target, and points to Ukraine as a key turning point. This article gives a good glimpse into how the foreign policy establishment is framing the current escalation of tensions:
This Interactive Map Shows the High Stakes Missile Stand-Off Between NATO and Russia.
These are some good links and good information you provided. Thank you. It definitely fills out the broad outline. Specifically the Russian history timeline. It’s easy to forget that from the Mongols to the Nazis the invasion paranoia in Russia is alive and well. It’s woven into their national consciousness and we can’t get rid of it.
This gets into Russia’s long-term strategic goals. To listen to some geopolitical analysts, Russia, is in its death throes. Demography is upside down: essentially no kids and a crappy life expectancy. They simply don’t have the people to populate the country and their armed forces will suffer and their borders will become weak and open to invasion, again.
If you consider the Islamist threat to Europe I suspect that this is what occupies Putin’s mind to a large extent. So the old ‘buffer state’ strategy is in place. How much of that is based on NATO and EU expansion or on potential Islamist invasion is anybody’s guess. But I think it’s fair to say Putin views it as a double threat.