He has a good track record for the general though.
For several cycles....he was right on typical political elections. This is not that
Most interesting, most confounding, most energetic, most fun election since my first vote in 1972 for tricky Dick.
All pundits, both on the left and on the right have never been so wrong in my lifetime. Barring a black swan event, Trump will outperform his poll numbers as he has done in 47 out of 50 primaries.
Looks on the faces of Nate Silver & Larry Sabato on November 9th? PRICELESS!!
I know he’s hated here, but my understanding is that Silver just takes the poll results and puts them all into a model that allows him to adjust for bias. Of course there’s an equal potential for bias in his anti-bias adjustments ;-)
If this is true then I cut him more slack than the pollsters who manipulate and IMHO manufacture data. At least he has a process, but “garbage in, garbage out”.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and his general election "track" is exactly two elections long.
He is left leaning, and in this tiny sample of two he erred on the side of the Democrat...not exactly a surprising choice. I warrant there are probably millions of Democrats that with no real predictive ability at all felt Obama would win by looking at the polls in the last two elections and not too far off by the percentages he ended up winning by. Does not mean I should take any of those millions of people more seriously than anyone else, especially any pronouncements of doom for a Republican that they had consistently underestimated in the primaries.