I think Jill Stein’s 2% is pretty hard, and Johnson should get half of the 10 he is getting in a lot of polls. I think 7 is about right. I don’t recall this much third party talk since 92. It’s the personal disgust people hold for the tops of the tickets that’s driving this, it’s not rational. I see it anecdotally, some people just despise Trump and Clinton viscerally, they’ll vote for “what’s Aleppo” despite horrific consequence for the Court.
I don’t see either doing better than Nadar in 2000, who was far more known and more popular than Johnson and Stein are now, combined. Nadar received 2.74% of the vote in 2000, and 3.75% in total voted 3rd party. We haven’t come close to those percentages since.