[LS]

Trump will win by 4-5 m votes, whatever % that works out to. I think 62m, maybe IF SHE’S LUCKY Cankles gets 55-56 with othrrs gdtting 5-6m

[bob_esb]

Thanks for the analysis.

How does the mesh with the weird polls - like DT and HT being tied GA (from the AJC)

[HamiltonJay]

Interesting, so where are you estimating the remaining 15% of the vote is going to go?

The third party players are not going to get 15% combined, I doubt they will crack 10... most likely 6-7%.

[BlueStateRightist]

After November 1 or so the polls will all start to converge on one message — the truth. Nothing can be interpreted before then, as agendas are still playing a role. Ultimately, all polling outfits, including the RCP average, for posterity, care how close they come to the real story.

[Future Useless Eater]

Sorry, but I still scream B.S. Because most of the referenced polls use D+6 or worse, and Female+6 or worse within their “Likely Voter” subsets.

But all detailed internals show that Republicans are more enthused at this time and turnout will be R+1. Similarly for females, especially females that voted for Obama, Those are the least enthused of all. So right now, “”Likely Voters” should be shown with Female+1, and NOT greater than that.

Do that for virtually any poll out there and Trump is ahead, or a LOT ahead.

[Gay State Conservative]

Of course Trump's gonna lose CA by 20...MA by 30...VT by 40....and DC by 90.But if he wins OH,NC,NV,IA and FL by 0.3 he's in.

Winning the popular vote would be nice....but far from essential.

[Gay State Conservative]

During the Brexit campaign 95% of the nation's elite....of ALL parties...urged Remain.In fact Leave supporters were being painted in the same way we are now.Rubes...country bumpkins...illiterates.

There can be no doubt that more than a few Trump supporters don't want to deal with the put downs so they conceal their support.

I,for example,have had two Trump bumper stickers removed from my car.Once in Brookline,MA....home of many,many,*many* rich Maoists...including Mike Dukakis himself.The other was in Greenwich,CT....one of the wealthiest residential towns on earth and home to scores of Ferraris sporting Bernie bumper stickers.My car was keyed in Greenwich on the same day (I was parked at the commuter rail station for the day).Don't know if it was the same person who took the bumper sticker.

[SuziQ]

Isn’t 4% within the margin of error?