Supply and demand are almost in balance, but no one can afford to do much exploration at these prices. I suspect we will see a spike again well over $80 before companies can get access to the capital necessary to return to large projects. Demand continue to grow and depletion at roughly 4% a year never sleeps, so we have to find new supplies just to keep supplies stagnant.
I have family(by marriage) in the business. The company they own and operate is very successful. It is one stop in nature except historically they never owned any rigs, they always leased them. This year they bought 10 rigs (cash) and have them all drilling. I asked the brother that runs the business if he was betting the ranch. He said no. That he can make good money above $40bbp and all the current drilling is pretty much a dead lock. He has been in the oil business all of his 65 year life and has made a fortune. Smart, streamlined and highly efficient operation.