“These kinds of put-your-money-where-your-mouth-is polls are worrisome. However, two things argue that they are not the last word:”
The only “last word” is the election day. In that day, the voters, or the vote counters, decide who wins or who does not. Until then, it is just speculation. There are lousy speculations and there are speculations that are much better.
“1. What were the odds on Trump a year ago? A lot less, no? So, the odds can change, and the trend is in the right direction.”
Trump went from a 350million-to-one to 3-to-one underdog. So, the trend is indeed good.
“2. If I am not mistaken, the betting odds on the Brexit vote, even up to the day before the referendum, were that it would fail. “
The odds were closer, apparently. This article from April (months before the vote). http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv-and-specials/20160411-brexit:-the-value-may-be-in-a-close-race
Anyway, the point is that the 2016 presidential odds present a fantastic investment opportunity (4-times return) to those that truly believe in Trump’s victory. Much better than anonymous opinionated polls where nothing is at stake and results can be cooked.
Thanks for your informative reply.