Posted on 07/25/2016 9:17:13 AM PDT by Sean_Anthony
Highest yet.
Some important caveats here: FiveThirtyEight.com is far from infallible. It basically consists of a bunch of statisticians who run probabilities based on polls and all kinds of other factors. The media treats their founder Nate Silver as if he’s some sort of predictive deity, but he’s just a guy who’s worked out a system that’s got some logic to it.
Also: A 40.8 percent chance of winning would be horrendous if it were the night before the election. But it’s not. It’s mid-July, and Donald Trump’s job at the Republican National Convention last week was to put himself in a stronger position to win the general election All signs are that he did just that, as Silver’s site has his chances decidedly on the rise.
Plus Trump just keeps rising....a ankles on the other hand
Leftards are blind to their own biases.
My estimate of the probability of DJT winning is 99%.
Is this the same model that had him at 57% ??
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
They have three forecasts.
They did say, if the election were held today, Trump would win with a 56.7 percent probability.
Um, I think that was Hillary’s. Trump’s is 57.5% based on the article from today.
Basically, 538 is a weighted average of selected polls expressed as a chance to win. The higher the average, the higher the chance to win.
No, there are two percentages on fivethirtyeight, one saying if the election were held today, Trump would win 57% - the other attempts to measure the probability Trump will win in November - 48%.
Personally, I would place far more credence in the “who would you vote for if the election were held today” poll - at least it is based on polling. The probability model is worthless if you think about it.
I mean, statistically, you can say things like “the incumbent party candidate has won 65% of the elections when unemployment was below 6% and the non incumbant party candidate is not taller than the incumbant party candidate, except during war time”.
But these kinds of concocted generalizations only work in retrospect.
Oops. 48% should be 40.8%
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