Posted on 07/13/2016 8:55:32 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
Once you get over the fact that according to the pollsters Donald Trump loses in just about every category except head to head, in some polls it becomes instructive to look deeper at the over and under representation of various important groups within the surveyed sample.
A new Monmouth poll makes this point. It says Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by 2 points in Iowa, a state that has not voted Republican since 1988. This is very good news for Trump and very bad news for Clinton. And although it is presented as “no big deal,” it not only is a “big deal” but a bigger deal than a quick glance would suggest.
The poll’s internals show their respondents were 37% Democrats; 35% Republicans and 28% Independents; a group Trump leads Clinton by just 39/35. This is where the sample begins to unravel. The latest Rasmussen survey found Trump leading with Independents by 20 points; moreover in 2012 the percentage of Independent Iowa voters was 34% a full six points more.
The second disparity between likely voters and what Monmouth used was the 21% percentage of young 18-29 voters compared to 15% in 2012. This group went 56% for Democrat Barack Obama, far above Clinton’s number. In fact an AP survey released this week shows Clinton getting 38% of this group’s support and from a still smaller pool of voters as 16% who say they aren’t voting.
These disparities are large enough to produce a lead for Trump which would...
(Excerpt) Read more at thecoachsteam.com ...
I’m starting to think that Pence as VP, and then having him spend 3 months in IA, WI, IN and OH might just be a wise idea.
“Iowa, a state that has not voted Republican since 1988.”
Coach is getting pretty sloppy...Iowa last votes R in 2004 when Bush won the state and the state didn’t go R in 1988; it was 1984.
http://www.270towin.com/states/Iowa
Considering the "gaffs" Trump has committed in the past, and it/they didn't make a difference ... even a tremendously poor and bad performance at a "debate" would probably STILL keep numbers static or in fact, climb.
I've had President Trump since just before he got his delegate numbers.
It was at that time that I absolutely set it in stone ... Trump was the nominee AND The President.
Recent Trump speeches have only set that fact more firmly.
Martial Law is the only way out for the democrats if they don't want to have their party annihilated after Trump's administration takes office.
Trump's DOJ will be the most watched entity of his first year.
My mistake on Iowa voting. They did go GOP in 04 but the general point still holds:Iowa is a Democrat voting state so this is good news. I
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