If there were just one single card in this deck....I might believe this ‘BREXIT-may-never-happen’ idea.
The problem is...the Austrian Constitutional Court is about to lay down a judgement in the next week that the May Presidential election results are invalid. This will trigger another run by the Green Party (the winner by less than 1-percent in the May election) and the right-wing party. You can take a guess how the next two months in Austria will go and how the anti-EU talk will be part of the make-up election. I think the Greens will lose on this second election.
So, you come to Oct in Germany, with a state election in Mecklenburg, Germany. Polling shows the anti-immigration/anti-EU party (the AfD) will probably take 25-percent (maybe even 28-percent) of the state’s votes. It’ll shift things around, and make Germans wonder about the three state elections in spring of 2017.
In France? There’s a presidential election coming up in the spring of 2017. Toss in the UK, Austria and Mecklenburg results and major talk of a Dutch referendum on the EU, and you might get a right-wing winner of France.
The German federal election? Scheduled for Oct/Nov of 2017. Merkel isn’t running, and the center-right/center-left parties are in weak marginal shape (they won’t cross the 50-percent point with their combined vote....something that hasn’t happened since 1949).
There are plenty of elections slated for 2017 and 2018....to reshape politics in Europe. So, in the early spring of 2019....guess what, the EU parliament election occurs. What if 50-to-60 percent of the vote goes right-wing? Shocker?
I don’t think BREXIT has to occur....it’s simply the threat, and the domino effect over the next two years that matters. As much as the intellectual folks think they created the perfect machine for their institution....I think it’ll be taken over and they may regret things in the end.