Posted on 06/07/2016 9:27:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
An analyst at Global Equities Research by the name of Trip Chowdhry has publicly commented that he considers the market value of the Tesla/Panasonic Gigafactory to be $50 billion, according to recent reports.
Considering that the projected development costs of the Gigafactory total “only” $5 billion, and also that Tesla’s current market capitalization is around $32 billion, that figure is quite a notable one. Whether one agrees or not, it’s a number that gets one’s attention….
In his denouement on the subject, Chowdhry drew an analogy with Amazon — noting that the company was originally just viewed as being an online bookseller, not the nearly end-all-be-all of online shopping that it now is.
Just the tip of iceberg was seen at the beginning, in other words. Could Tesla represent such a game-changing force, with such far-reaching effects on the broader industry, as Amazon has? An interesting question. Tesla’s case has certainly been getting stronger and stronger as of late….
“The analyst bases his valuation on the potential revenue stream he sees being generated by the battery factory. Chowdhry believes that the Gigafactory will be capable of generating as much as $100 billion in revenue for the company over the next 20 years. He calls what Tesla is doing with its Gigafactory ‘new industry creation activity,’ meaning that the potential revenue from the enterprise is far greater than most people realize,” Teslarati notes.
“At the annual shareholder meeting on May 31, Tesla announced that its battery output potential could triple to nearly 105 gigawatt-hours of battery cells and gigawatt hours of battery packs for energy storage. Combined, that is nearly three times the total production of lithium ion batteries in the entire world. Musk also noted that the battery plant will also be updating the form factor of its existing cylindrical Li-ion cell that carries a 18 mm diameter and 65 mm height better known as an 18650 to a larger diameter and taller 20700 cell (20 mm dia x 70 mm height).”
While I wouldn’t personally go quite as far as Chowdhry does, I do think that Tesla is likely to be a very disruptive presence over the next decade or so. In the auto industry, and possibly in the energy storage industry as well (presuming the Gigafactory drives down the cost lithium-ion batteries substantially).
Sure and Tesla’s coal-burning car is also worth billions right?
I remember similar glowing predictions about the solar panel industry. Years ago a brother-in-law (a liberal fool) was trying to convince me to invest in solar with him. He’s big on “green” energy issues. Everything he invested in became a loser, solar panel companies included. In 2009 he made a bet with me that most cars sold in five years would be electric and there would be no more solely gasoline powered cars sold. He welshed on that $100 bet pleading dementia, that he couldn’t remember such a bet. Anyway, stick with conventional efficient products and you can’t go wrong. Get enamored with unproven promises and get burned.
It does sound like some hype.
Maybe the analyst is pumping the stock, because his company wants to dump theirs at a better price...
The cell phone in my hand has been assessed to be worth $50 000. However, until this thread gets pulled, I will consider all serious offers for at least $35,000.
Unless there unknown physics, batteries are pretty much maxed out in their performance. The best that can be done are materials that are lighter and they might be able to eek out some efficiencies in energy transfer. But without some not-as-yet known material that can replace lithium, this is it.
Gee, I would have guessed a million jillion kazillion.
Yes, unless there is some miracle scientific breakthrough in battery technology, electric cars have gone about as far as they’re going for now. There may be some small improvements in efficiency, but e-cars are still in the golf cart stage.
Tesla and this battery factory wouldn’t be around without Gov’t grants and tax deals.
So Nevada (where the Tesla Gigafactory is located) becomes just a little more valuable.
I remember a few notable silicon valley people who lived on the eastern side the CA/NV border. Jim Clark as depicted in the New New Thing. Sun Microsystem’s Bill Joy (Java).
Those guys must’ve loved the no-income-tax lifestyle in NV.
GM bondholder here... (well, ex GM bondholder)
Remember the old saying, as GM goes, so goes the country?
Scale. What made Amazon valuable was the practically free cost to scale. A physical battery plant, not.
Tesla=Solyndra for cars
Where will they be able to source the raw material for all those batteries?
Where is all the lithium going to come from?
Bolivia?
yep
same time a loaf of bread costs $100
TSLA needs about $50 billion capital infusion
tesla needs additional production capacity to really grow
lithium producers: australia argentina chile china
Two junior miners announced conditional agreements to supply lithium to Tesla’s lithium-ion battery gigafactory in Nevada. First was Bacanora Minerals (TSXV:BCN,LSE:BCN) and joint venture partner Rare Earth Minerals (LSE:REM), which hold the Sonora lithium project in Mexico, and second was Pure Energy Minerals (TSXV:PE) with the Clayton Valley project in Nevada.
GM’s Bolt is supposed to go 200 miles on a single charge and costs $30K...
Tesla is promising delivery on the recent 3 model in 2018.... and costs $30K +
Tesla .... is a niche luxury brand
1. Unprecedented government subsidies (including $1.3 billion in incentives to help build a massive battery factory near Reno) that total somewhere near $3 billion.
2. Stock sales: Tesla raised $738 million from a single stock sale in August of this year.
3. Huge amounts of debt.
lots of self-driving car tesla employees have migrated to apple... musk says they were not a great loss
Probably not thinking about the automotive end so much as the ‘Powerwall’ concept. For regions such as California with time-of-day and demand pricing structure, the ability to buy electricity at the best price point for later use, may be in play. The storage of excess power from residential level solar or wind is another avenue of application.
The upfront cost of a 7 kWh unit at $3500, plus a separate inverter, and the cost of professional installation—may still appeal to those wishing to make the most of a solar or wind investment for the home. In a remote location without a grid tie, this would provide stand-by and overnight availability of electricity without a separate fuel burning generator.
The device brochure refers to a daily cycle of use rather than strictly as a back-up to the grid supply, with a claimed draw-down of 100% of rated capacity A warranty of ten years is listed, though not mentioned whether a prorated or replacement terms for the whole ten years.
And yet, the Tesla Model 3 batteries will be from Panasonic.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0YU0ML
Is this wonderful logistics planning by the “rocket scientist,” or what?
Lithium? Lots of things can replace it. Ni-Zi is better.
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