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Nassim Nicholas Taleb - "What we are seeing worldwide"
facebook ^ | March 8th | Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Posted on 05/06/2016 8:14:51 PM PDT by dennisw

What we are seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking "clerks" and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think... and 5) who to vote for.

With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30y of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, microeconomic papers wrong 40% of the time, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating only 1/5th of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers with a better track record than these policymaking goons.

Indeed one can see that these academico-bureaucrats wanting to run our lives aren't even rigorous, whether in medical statistics or policymaking. I have shown that most of what Cass-Sunstein-Richard Thaler types call "rational" or "irrational" comes from misunderstanding of probability theory.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Education; Food; Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS:
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1 posted on 05/06/2016 8:14:51 PM PDT by dennisw
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To: dennisw

Dead on. Also true with scientific studies in other fields:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2015/08/27/trouble-in-science-massive-effort-to-reproduce-100-experimental-results-succeeds-only-36-times/


2 posted on 05/06/2016 8:30:33 PM PDT by The Continental Op
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To: dennisw

Over educated and terminally stupid people without commons sense or real work experience are making laws and rules that are weakening or destroying people around the world.


3 posted on 05/06/2016 8:32:28 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Vote for Trump and break your cycle of Battered Conservative Syndrome!)
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To: dennisw

Wonder if they’ll ever wake up to the climate change scam.


4 posted on 05/06/2016 8:38:51 PM PDT by Excellence (Marine mom since April 11, 2014)
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To: dennisw
If you dig deeper into their "expertise," you will find that they are not telling us how the world really works, but what they think the world should be. They are after a clean-cut idealistic conclusion, while the reality is complex, uncertain and frequently depressing. It is more about satisfying their psychological needs than getting at the truth.

They are after their own grand finale, a cosmic happy ending. That is fine if their views are true, but they are not. More importantly, their flawed "truth" do egregious damage to the human society they claim to save. They impose the wrong solution and make people suffer.

5 posted on 05/06/2016 8:45:31 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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To: dennisw

pharmaceutical trials replicating only 1/5th of the time


6 posted on 05/06/2016 9:20:55 PM PDT by MarvinStinson
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To: dennisw

, microeconomic papers wrong 40% of the time,


7 posted on 05/06/2016 9:21:54 PM PDT by MarvinStinson
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To: Grampa Dave

people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers with a better track record than these policymaking goons.


8 posted on 05/06/2016 9:22:46 PM PDT by MarvinStinson
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To: dennisw

The Black Swan


9 posted on 05/06/2016 9:36:44 PM PDT by Pelham (Trump/Tsoukalos 2016 - vote the great hair ticket)
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To: Pelham; dennisw
The Black Swan

#BlackSwansMatter

10 posted on 05/06/2016 9:50:03 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Excellence

I’d say it’s more likely they’ll burn you for heresy.


11 posted on 05/06/2016 10:47:24 PM PDT by Trod Upon (To be labelled "far-right" by modern journalists, one need do no more than NOT be far-left.)
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To: Grampa Dave

We are suffering from the higher education systems drones


12 posted on 05/07/2016 3:58:03 AM PDT by ronnie raygun
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To: dennisw

Bump for later


13 posted on 05/07/2016 4:05:35 AM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah so shall it be again,")
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To: dennisw

I’ve read three of his books.

Something he has repeated a number of times is that the less he listens to the popular press, the more he knows that is true. The more he listens to them, the less he knows.

So he doesn’t listen to them. So what do you read? Books. So how will you know if something important happens? I’m sure I’ll hear about it.


14 posted on 05/07/2016 5:04:39 AM PDT by marron
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To: TigerLikesRooster

“”””If you dig deeper into their “expertise,” you will find that they are not telling us how the world really works, but what they think the world should be. They are after a clean-cut idealistic conclusion, while the reality is complex, uncertain and frequently depressing. It is more about satisfying their psychological needs than getting at the truth.
They are after their own grand finale, a cosmic happy ending. That is fine if their views are true, but they are not. More importantly, their flawed “truth” do egregious damage to the human society they claim to save. They impose the wrong solution and make people suffer.”””

If you really dig you’ll find that what they really want is control - total control. It stems from their inner fears that they may fall prey to human nature and lose their sense of superiority. As long as they are in control they can continue to feel superior.


15 posted on 05/07/2016 5:22:57 AM PDT by raybbr (That progressive bumpers sticker on your car might just as well say, "Yes, I'm THAT stupid!")
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To: TigerLikesRooster

That is exactly right. The left’s great oversimplification causes suffering because reality is not simple.


16 posted on 05/07/2016 5:37:26 AM PDT by Yardstick
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To: marron

I’ve come to the same conclusion.


17 posted on 05/07/2016 6:31:11 AM PDT by Oratam
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To: MarvinStinson

these policymaking goons.


Socialist twats.


18 posted on 05/07/2016 7:48:48 AM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: dennisw; COUNTrecount; Nowhere Man; FightThePower!; C. Edmund Wright; jacob allen; Travis McGee; ...

At no point in history has any government ever wanted its people to be defenseless for any good reason ~ nully's son

The biggest killer of mankind

Nut-job Conspiracy Theory Ping!

To get onto The Nut-job Conspiracy Theory Ping List you must threaten to report me to the Mods if I don't add you to the list...

Laugha while you can

monkey boy!

19 posted on 05/07/2016 8:00:53 AM PDT by null and void ("when authority began inspiring contempt, it had stopped being authority" ~ H. Beam Piper)
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To: null and void

Oh...but “they” are soooooo much smarter than you. Just ask them.


20 posted on 05/07/2016 8:22:25 AM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp?.)
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