Skip to comments.A Call to Reality and Cruz's Chances EVEN On a Second Ballot
Posted on 04/20/2016 8:54:27 AM PDT by xzins
Most news services are reporting that Ted Cruz currently has 559 delegates after gaining zero in yesterday's New York primary. With 1237 the goal, it is clear that Ted Cruz can no longer win on the first ballot at the Republican Convention. He would need 678 delegates to reach 1237 and only 620 delegates remain. Obviously, that is impossible. That would be 109% of what remains, and that is a mathematical impossibility.
A good guess of how many additional delegates Cruz will gain between now and June 8 is 209. That would give him a total of 768 going into the convention. He would be 469 delegates short of 1237 on the first ballot.
469 delegates is an insurmountable number on the first ballot. And while it is an educated estimate, it is close enough that a fair observer will recognize that Cruz will be far below the needed number of delegates to make any kind of run whatsoever on the first ballot.
But, here's the kicker, and many are not considering it as they think about an open convention and Cruz perhaps emerging victorious on some subsequent ballot.
Cruz would STILL need those 469 delegates to close the gap to reach 1237 on the 2nd ballot. Even worse is that a huge percentage of his bound delegates can desert him on the second ballot. That means it is very likely that he begins needing 600 or more delegates to reach the magic 1237 on even the 2nd ballot.
It is true that in some smart card playing that Cruz has gained a few delegates here and a few delegates there in this state or that state. But, as you reflect on these numbers, it also comes to mind that it was generally a dozen or less, and it was only in a few instances. If it added up even to 200, it would still leave Ted Cruz far short of the kind of numbers he would need.
Former U.S. representative Pete Hoekstra, a John Kasich supporter and a member of the establishment, was reluctant to say it, but last night he acknowledged that John Kasich would be a natural running mate for Donald Trump. It was a bit of candor. It was logical given the state of the race.
It is the same for Ted Cruz. Even a 2nd ballot victory is a mathematically illogical objective for Ted Cruz. This is especially true given that the establishment does not want him or any other outsider winning the nomination. Cruz will fail on the 2nd ballot is what the numbers say. And with the establishment then exercising their power in the 3rd round, there is little likelihood that Cruz will emerge.
It is logical for Cruz to side with Trump NOW and lock in the vice presidency.
He is 44 years old, and he'll be just 52 at the oldest when he will be the heralded front runner for the presidency in 2020 or 2024.
Those who want his leadership and his principles in the driver's seat must see that that is not a dead dream. It is a delayed dream. It is entirely logical for Ted Cruz to join that very short list of famous men who for all history will have been vice presidents of the United States of America.
As Pat Buchanan says, it would be electrifying.
it would be electrifying....It would also pound the hell out of Hillary
I love Cruz, but I think we’re gonna win Texas and Oklahoma anyway. Trump/Kasich.
Cruz has become a tool of the establishment to block the citizens from electing a President who would stop The Cheap Labor Express.
He knows exactly what he is doing.
I want him no where near the ticket.
His globalist mask is completely off.
He has just been fighting to win. That’s all.
Up until recently I might have accepted that as an explanation.
Today he told me I needed to get a Hillary sticker.
I’m done with this phony.
Hispanics: You’re dreaming.
Religious Conservatives: See Trump’s massive wins among evangelicals.
Gotta have Ohio, as well as placate establishment voters a bit.
Cruz is ineligible to be VP and will get destroyed by the Left.
That’s a standard comment that has been used on FR in every election I’ve seen since I became a Freeper in 1998.
“If you support _______, then you are really throwing the race to __________!”
He is just trying to win.
It has gone to court, and he’s been found legal.
“the establishment does not want him or any other outsider winning the nomination”
Obviously that goes for Trump too.
The key is that the GOPe cannot throw out the votes from the primaries after asking people to participate.
If Trump has a large lead he will get the GOPe delegates’ votes on the first ballot- at a small price.
If it’s closer he’ll get their votes on a later ballot at a higher cost.
Ted would have to nearly tie Trump for the GOPe to give him the nomination- even if they wanted him.
His ambition has overpowered any concern he may have had for the citizens or the country.
I’m not dreaming. It is an Anglo Saxon and a Hispanic.
So far as religious conservatives, I suggest you look at which states Cruz has won and reconsider.
I don’t think there’s any question that he is ambitious, but ambition isn’t a bad thing.
He fights. He fights hard....that’s one reason most folks not on his side are upset with him.
They cannot throw them out on the first ballot. I agree.
The second ballot, they have to give a lot of weight to the voters.
Once it appears the convention is deadlocked, though, it will be easy for the people to see that they need some kind of process that goes beyond the numbers of delegates.
They’ll need a tie-breaker, and that’s when the establishment will creep in.
I’m with you. This guy has become so unacceptable, so nasty, as to make himself dead to me.
Cruz has NO chance on a second ballot. His function is to force a second ballot, or rather, to give cover for having a second ballot instead of changing the rules to untie all the delegates on the first ballot. A second ballot will be used to select someone the GOPe has already decided on and that is someone who may not be even officially running.
Only state courts have ruled ... which means in those states he has been deemed eligible to run. No federal court has ruled on whether Cruz meets the qualifications to hold the office. Perhaps he is eligible, but that has not been resolved nor can it be resolved by state courts.
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