Turkey downs Russian fighter, Iran receives important message

Ever since the Russian military launched its various airstrikes and ground activities in Syria all experts have warned of the possibility of provoked or unprovoked clashes. The recent downing of a Russian Su-24 fighter jet by Turkish F-16s must be evaluated through a regional perspective, and not a mere dispute between two countries. This incident has the potential to involve the entire North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as many members of the powerful bloc have expressed their support behind Ankara. However, the most critical result of this significant change of events is the very important message received by Iran. Turkey is far different from other neighbors of Syria and the very obvious reason is its membership in NATO. The United States military also has many bases on Turkish soil, including its strategic partnership with Ankara in the use of the vitally crucial Incirlik airbase. Turkey is also host to numerous batteries of NATO Patriot missiles stationed along its borders with Syria. All this speaks of serious firepower behind the officials in Ankara, and Moscow takes this very seriously. As recent reports have indicated talks between France and Turkey to establish a long overdue safe zone in northern Syria, this new step by Ankara in downing a Russian fighter jet is a strong signal to all parties, especially Iran. Ankara had made the decision to establish this safe zone even before hosting the last G20 Summit, and stretching from the border cities of Jerablus to Azzaz in Syria this area will provide a significant safe zone for Syrians on their own soil. The main loser in such a scenario would be Iran as a safe zone will provide the necessary springboard for Syrian opposition groups to launch major attacks against its endangered ally, Bashar Assad. Turkey intends to provide air and artillery support for Syrian opposition forces on the ground to protect this safe zone. As officials in Tehran watched the surprising footage of a Russian fighter downed alongside the Turkish-Syria, they came to understand very well that Turkey will mean business in imposing protection for such a safe zone. The Russian intervention in Syria has been one of the most important events alongside Turkish borders in years. The Russians have come to support Syriaâ€™s Iran-controlled failing army, which is deeply hostile to the ruling party in Turkey, home to millions of Syrian refugees, thousands of Syrians living in different cities, and a major base for political dissidents and armed opposition groups. From day one reports indicated of Russian air force pilots harassing Ankara by infiltrating their airspace, and Turkey responding by scrambling fighter jets after them. However, this latest incident was no mistake entry into Turkish airspace and goes far beyond any act of simple harassment. And the serious response from Turkey has tarnished President Vladimir Putinâ€™s image. Analysts are saying Ankara has deliberately sent a very harsh-toned message to the Russia-Iran alliance in an already tense Middle East situation. It very much appears that Turkey is quite serious about establishing and backing a safe zone along its border, and this is seriously endangering Iran as its Revolutionary Guards and militia forces may eventually lose all control over the strategic city of Aleppo in the north. Despite the fact that U.S. President Barack Obama has so mistakenly opposed establishing such a safe zone in northern Syria for a very long time â€“ under the pretext of needing a large ground force to protect the safe zone â€“ France entering the war against terror after the Paris attacks have changed all strategic equations for the better. Now, following the downing of the Russian Su-24 by the Turkish F-16, again all parties involved in Syria will be rethinking and most probably shuffling their strategies. If we add the downing of the Russian passenger airliner in Egypt to all this, it is easily concluded that Moscow has received two major blows in less than two months after entering Syria with an unprecedented air and missile brouhaha. Rest assured that Tehran is watching everything closely. Already suffering from the Syrian opposition as more and more of its senior commanders and hired foot-soldiers are killed on a daily basis, Iran is terrified of Russia recalculating its interests in Syria. Moscow can negotiate with the West â€“ seeking splits in the Moscow-Tehran alliance over Syria â€“ about its interests in the Syria of tomorrow, and does not consider Assad remaining in power a red line. Tehran, however, doesnâ€™t enjoy the luxury of losing Assad in Syria, already describing the country as its 35th state. When all the dusts settles, Moscow will come to sense that it is not in its interest to launch a major dispute with NATO-backed Turkey and will seek to maintain its strategic relations with Ankara. Moscow may be installing S400 surface-to-air missiles in Syria in response to the downing of its jet, yet this is all just saber-rattling by Putin aimed at comforting his small base of supporters back home. And finally, Iran sees the Russian jet downing incident as a major turn of events, knowing Turkey would not take any such step without a green light and prior assurance from NATO. All this indicates a serious change in tones, and Tehran doesnâ€™t like this or any other surprises.

I broke up that mess into paragraphs. But not necessarily grammatically proper ones. In any case, it’s better than it was.
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This incident has the potential to involve the entire North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as many members of the powerful bloc have expressed their support behind Ankara. However, the most critical result of this significant change of events is the very important message received by Iran. Turkey is far different from other neighbors of Syria and the very obvious reason is its membership in NATO.

The United States military also has many bases on Turkish soil, including its strategic partnership with Ankara in the use of the vitally crucial Incirlik airbase. Turkey is also host to numerous batteries of NATO Patriot missiles stationed along its borders with Syria. All this speaks of serious firepower behind the officials in Ankara, and Moscow takes this very seriously. As recent reports have indicated talks between France and Turkey to establish a long overdue safe zone in northern Syria, this new step by Ankara in downing a Russian fighter jet is a strong signal to all parties, especially Iran.

Ankara had made the decision to establish this safe zone even before hosting the last G20 Summit, and stretching from the border cities of Jerablus to Azzaz in Syria this area will provide a significant safe zone for Syrians on their own soil. The main loser in such a scenario would be Iran as a safe zone will provide the necessary springboard for Syrian opposition groups to launch major attacks against its endangered ally, Bashar Assad.

Turkey intends to provide air and artillery support for Syrian opposition forces on the ground to protect this safe zone. As officials in Tehran watched the surprising footage of a Russian fighter downed alongside the Turkish-Syria, they came to understand very well that Turkey will mean business in imposing protection for such a safe zone. The Russian intervention in Syria has been one of the most important events alongside Turkish borders in years.

The Russians have come to support Syria’s Iran-controlled failing army, which is deeply hostile to the ruling party in Turkey, home to millions of Syrian refugees, thousands of Syrians living in different cities, and a major base for political dissidents and armed opposition groups.

From day one reports indicated of Russian air force pilots harassing Ankara by infiltrating their airspace, and Turkey responding by scrambling fighter jets after them. However, this latest incident was no mistake entry into Turkish airspace and goes far beyond any act of simple harassment. And the serious response from Turkey has tarnished President Vladimir Putin’s image.

Analysts are saying Ankara has deliberately sent a very harsh-toned message to the Russia-Iran alliance in an already tense Middle East situation. It very much appears that Turkey is quite serious about establishing and backing a safe zone along its border, and this is seriously endangering Iran as its Revolutionary Guards and militia forces may eventually lose all control over the strategic city of Aleppo in the north.

Despite the fact that U.S. President Barack Obama has so mistakenly opposed establishing such a safe zone in northern Syria for a very long time — under the pretext of needing a large ground force to protect the safe zone — France entering the war against terror after the Paris attacks have changed all strategic equations for the better.

Now, following the downing of the Russian Su-24 by the Turkish F-16, again all parties involved in Syria will be rethinking and most probably shuffling their strategies. If we add the downing of the Russian passenger airliner in Egypt to all this, it is easily concluded that Moscow has received two major blows in less than two months after entering Syria with an unprecedented air and missile brouhaha. Rest assured that Tehran is watching everything closely.

Already suffering from the Syrian opposition as more and more of its senior commanders and hired foot-soldiers are killed on a daily basis, Iran is terrified of Russia recalculating its interests in Syria. Moscow can negotiate with the West — seeking splits in the Moscow-Tehran alliance over Syria — about its interests in the Syria of tomorrow, and does not consider Assad remaining in power a red line.

Tehran, however, doesn’t enjoy the luxury of losing Assad in Syria, already describing the country as its 35th state. When all the dusts settles, Moscow will come to sense that it is not in its interest to launch a major dispute with NATO-backed Turkey and will seek to maintain its strategic relations with Ankara.

Moscow may be installing S400 surface-to-air missiles in Syria in response to the downing of its jet, yet this is all just saber-rattling by Putin aimed at comforting his small base of supporters back home.

And finally, Iran sees the Russian jet downing incident as a major turn of events, knowing Turkey would not take any such step without a green light and prior assurance from NATO. All this indicates a serious change in tones, and Tehran doesn’t like this or any other surprises.

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