Ted Cruz Surging in Iowa, Viewed as Most Electable

Jews for Ted Cruz ^ | libertarian neocon

[libertarian neocon]

The latest Quinnipiac Iowa poll had great news for Ted Cruz on several fronts.

He is surging and now is just behind Donald Trump for the lead (technically a statistical tie):

There is good news and bad news in the fact that he has 42% of those who consider themselves Tea Party.  The good news is that the Tea Party vote is not as divided as it has been in previous cycles and that Cruz seems to be the consensus Tea Party pick (not a shock based on my Twitter feed).  The bad news is that with such a level of support, how much more juice can Ted Cruz get from Tea Partiers?  He is also winning among white evangelicals but he has more room to grow here, especially if he gets the Bob Vander Plaats endorsement.  Anyway, it is increasingly looking like Iowa is Ted Cruz's to lose at this point.

Another reason to be happy with this poll is that he is now being viewed as the most electable candidate:

This is very important because he has a clear lead among those that want someone who is the most conservative (or most shares their values) but has always lagged in the electable category.  It's also important that he wins among those who say the most important characteristic is that the candidate be honest and trustworthy.  Rubio is behind Trump in these voters!

On the policy front, as usual Trump is leading in the economic category but his lead isn't as high as before.  I think though that Cruz needs to continue to talk about economic issues to win more of these voters.  He is doing great with those who most care about terrorism but the ISIS hysteria will fade.

A good sign that this Cruz boom will be sustainable is that a little less than half of Cruz supporters have already made up their mind to vote for him.

 

Note that only 22% of Rubio support is actually firm.  I think a lot of people like Rubio because he is generally likeable, looks good on TV and talks well.  But not that many people outside of the Weekly Standard actually LOVE him. This could mean that as other establishment candidates, like Chris Christie, have little boomlets, his supporters might switch quickly. 

Also, Ted Cruz seems to be the least hated candidate out there with the fewest percentage of people saying they would never vote for him. That is pretty amazing as the conventional wisdom is that he is a divisive figure.  Cruz seems to have a high ceiling of support.

Going hand in hand with that is the fact that his favorables are pretty much as high as you can get them among Iowa voters, pretty much across the board (except for moderate/liberal voters):

And if there was any statistic to make you believe that Cruz will end up crushing Trump in Iowa, here it is:

 

The vast majority of respondents believe that Ted Cruz cares about their problems while only 58% of them think Trump does.  People tend to vote for people who care.  It's really reassuring to see Ted Cruz's numbers this high.  He used to have this used car salesman thing about him but he has been able to really humanize the way he talks so that people see that he really does care about them.

[MeganC]

I can see myself voting for Ted Cruz. That’s quite a change from around a year ago.

[TangledUpInBlue]

Iowa isn’t typically indicative of the overall electorate. Just look at the last two winners there......

[Leaning Right]

Well, my lib acquaintances are all talking Sanders. There is little enthusiasm for Hillary.

And my conservative acquaintances are all talking Trump. There is little enthusiasm for Cruz. And one more thing. My middle-of-the-road acquaintances are also all talking Trump.

Just a report from my neck of the woods.

[libertarian neocon]

“Iowa isn’t typically indicative of the overall electorate. Just look at the last two winners there......”

That’s because both were surprise winners who didn’t have good organizations. Also Cruz is a down the line conservative while those were mostly just social conservatives with little appeal to economic conservatives (Huckabee is a big govt Republican and Santorum is a “compassionate conservative” which equates to the same thing)

[cripplecreek]

Not mentioned that I can see but a lot of libertarian types seem to lean toward him as well.

[libertarian neocon]

“I can see myself voting for Ted Cruz. That’s quite a change from around a year ago.”

A year ago I thought I was going with Walker. Ted Cruz though has really impressed me with how he actually thinks everything through so has converted me. I always agreed with him on policy but wasn’t sure he could do it, now I do!

[Moorings]

Ted Cruz is the best combination of Reagan’s three legged stool - fiscal, social and libertarian.

[libertarian neocon]

“Not mentioned that I can see but a lot of libertarian types seem to lean toward him as well.”

Yup, I think him mentioning his support for gold and also talking about allowing states to legalize marijuana was meant to steal libertarians from Rand Paul.

[TangledUpInBlue]

I should clarify that I like Ted Cruz, but just think that winning in Iowa isn’t really cause for great celebration because they often “do their own thing” in that state. So to speak.

[newfreep]

Any photos of a Cruz, Carson, Rubio, Bush rally with 15,000 attendees ala Trump?

The “poll cooking” this season is on steroids...

[CygnusXI]

Exactly the same here in Minnesotastan.
I’m all Cruz but have no issue with trump if he’s the nominee.

[lormand]

I stand with Ted

[libertarian neocon]

“Well, my lib acquaintances are all talking Sanders. There is little enthusiasm for Hillary.

And my conservative acquaintances are all talking Trump. There is little enthusiasm for Cruz. And one more thing. My middle-of-the-road acquaintances are also all talking Trump.

Just a report from my neck of the woods.”

Where is your neck of the woods. Trump is leading by a country mile in most polls so he shouldnt be discounted but I think a lot of it is because he has an aura of winning. If Trump doesnt win Iowa or New Hampshire, that will change rapidly.

[TangledUpInBlue]

My brother just met the man in Milwaukee. He was very impressed and commented how he genuine he was but also appears to be incredibly smart.

[Catsrus]

I think Iowans go for the most evangelical of the candidates. Maybe they think they are voting for a new pastor???? If Cruz wins Iowa - well good for him. He isn’t faring as well in the other states. So, we’ll see what happens.

[Leaning Right]

Ted Cruz is the best combination of Reagan's three legged stool - fiscal, social and libertarian.

Lots of truth there. Others might disagree with me here, but IMHO Cruz differs from Reagan in one important regard. Reagan could resonate with the average American, Joe Six-Pack.

Cruz, as of now, cannot. He speaks too much like a Senator, and too much like a lawyer. On the other hand, Trump speaks like a common man, speaking to the common man.

Cruz could learn something from Trump in that regard. Better yet, they should form an alliance.

[libertarian neocon]

“I should clarify that I like Ted Cruz, but just think that winning in Iowa isn’t really cause for great celebration because they often “do their own thing” in that state. So to speak.”

They basically do what Bob Vander Plaats tells them to do. If Ted wins that endorsement he should win easily. Then he’ll get a boost in all other state polls. People like a winner

[elhombrelibre]

He’s the most electable and the most reasonable.

[cripplecreek]

He also speaks about not involving ourselves in civil conflicts where we have no interest and not arming every ally of the moment.

His strong 10th amendment stance and opposition to domestic spying are good too. His solid opposition to subsidizing private industry is just icing on the cake.