Posted on 07/13/2015 11:03:11 AM PDT by bananaman22
Pure trollop.
I pulled out an “old” file from 2009 where some pundit was going on and on about Peak Oil and a whole bunch of other disasters that never happened.
The pundits extrapolate the current point... they get money for that.
Given the need to make interest payments (and balance national budgets), my feeling was always that there would be a race to the bottom, price-wise, if over-supply ever materialized. I suspect we are about to find out, once again, that oil is somewhat different, but not completely different, re the way booms and busts play out. And we are in the bust phase of the oil market. The weak players need to go bust, and idle their production, before we find a bottom.
You should recognize, that while they may go bust, the production is not going to be idled.
Even if bankrupt, someone will buy every producing well for dimes in place of dollars and keep that oil flowing.
The Bust just limits the new wells drilled. The old wells decline in production over time, but they don't stop because oil falls to $50.
Thanks as always for the in depth industry analysis.
Something snapped in the past week, retail prices up 20 to 25%. Diesel is $1 less than gasoline.
Whatever it was, it was sudden.
Ping me when you find a wellhead selling for dimes on the dollar, please.
How much is the new state “Cap and Trade” inflating petroleum prices?
Dimes on the dollar for what was paid 1~2 years ago?
I’m a big fan of buying assets at 70-90% off.
60% off is a good deal. Still dimes on the dollar.
Unless your dollar price was greatly inflated. above what the buyer becomes real.
Two years ago there were definitely some that overpaid, at least with hindsight from today.
Like when the Haynesville first reached it’s peak for lease sales. I saw some public land bonus paid of $25,000 an acre and 30% royalty.
Where can we buy functioning petroleum wellheads for 60% off? You can FReepmail me.
I am not saying it well. I don’t mean 60% of current market value. I mean the drop in prices from what total installed cost was running two years ago on marginal wells.
No vulture bargains? I thought our FRelationship was finally going to pay off for me! I already formed the LLC using your FR handle. We were 50/50 partners on all the profits. I put a deposit down on an oceanfront condo in Miami, a yacht and a private jet. I bought cowboy boots, a big hat and a convertible Caddy with grille mounted horns, plus a small ranch in Texas with a private airstrip. This is really disappointing. I ragequit FB and burned a lot of bridges with obnoxious comments about my ‘loser’ friends not sponging off my new wealth. Maybe I can cancel it all in the morning and refriend everybody using the excuse that I was hacked. Your misposting really cost me, buddy. You should be more careful when you post. I won’t be able to sleep tonight for worrying, you know.
;-]
I was responding to a post discussing weak players going bust.
Their problems are not what they are spending now, but what they spent in the boom time, and what they borrowed to do so.
BTW, I’ll buy “thackney, LLC” for 60% of what you paid....
Thanks and I love your posts and commentary. Obviously I was just kidding. I can’t afford Thackney, LLC. ;-]
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