Posted on 03/31/2015 6:12:19 AM PDT by ken5050
Saudi Arabia is moving its ground forces south, seemingly prepared to cross into Yemen. The Saudi Air Force has been bombing the Houthi rebels for several days, but it seems that the Saudis have already realized the age-old lesson that "boots on the ground" are necessary to win a war. As many FReepers are very knowledgeable and current on military matters, I'd like to know what are the chances of the Saudis succeeding?
Here's the key part from that article:
Shia insurgency in Yemen[edit] "Main articles: Shia insurgency in Yemen and Operation Scorched Earth On November 5, 2009, the Royal Saudi Land Forces launched a sweeping ground offensive against Yemen's Shiite Houthi rebels after they crossed the Saudi border in order to outflank the Yemeni Army, which had launched a military campaign against the Houthis to control and pacify the northern Yemeni mountains, and killed two Saudi border guards. The Saudi forces relied heavily on air power and artillery to soften the rebels without risking their men. The Saudi Army lost 133 soldiers in the fighting against the rebels, with most of the casualties occurring when ground forces tried to move into areas that had been softened by shelling.[27]
At least 133 Saudi soldiers were killed over three months, and the skirmish was described as a "humiliating blow to the Saudis’ well-financed but inexperienced military" that "raised alarms across the Sunni Arab world about the possibility that Iran might be supporting the Yemeni rebels".[28]
I was not aware that the Saudis had undertaken this action a few years earlier, with very bad results. If the same result holds..if the Saudi ground forces are unable to succeed, then what happens next?
I would think they are not very good. In general their population has become fat, lazy and disengaged, being able to sit at home and collect the largesse of oil money as foreign guest workers do all of the labor of any consequence.
If the wells ever run dry it will be a populace that is utterly unable to take care of itself.
Weak at best. The Saudis only fight when backed by U.S. assets.
There is an article about Pakistan helping the Saudis. Maybe you should look at their military.
The only armed force capable of that is the United States.
they probably have some of the sons of their elites willing to perform as pilots, but ground pounders? Nah, this is work for the lower classes and hired hands
I wonder how many are “palestinians” and Egyptians? The perennial migrant laborers of the arab world
My gunner had been a tank crewman in the first Gulf War. He described landing in Saudi, and trying to do some training while they waited for equipment. One training device is the UCOFT, which is essentially a video game. And the Saudis had several (purchased from the US).
He was struck by how ‘new’ and ‘unused’ the Saudi UCOFT was. Back at home, the UCOFT is literally scheduled 24 hours a day...and I remember getting up to go do 3:00 a.m. shifts in it. In other words, we used the heck out of it. Like a video game, it had progressively harder levels, and a new tank commander/gunner combination would have to reach a certain level together, before the army spent money on training with real rounds.
The Saudis...well, they bought a lot of them...maybe tried them once. And that was it. My gunner described taking some of the equipment out of its original boxes, etc. And that’s the Saudi attitude. They have bought a lot of US equipment...but they never thought they would actually have to use it.
I’m skeptical of their capabilities.
I’m wondering if Saudi Arabia could have an Iraq-style problem. Those doing the fighting are non-royal Saudis and hired hands. How many are in reality opposed to the Saudi monarchy?
I’ve heard that the skills of the NCOs (non-commissioned officers - sergeants) are extremely weak in Arab militaries, resulting in poor performance.
Check out Global Fire Power website, you can compare the various militaries involved here.
It’s no longer just the Saudis who have an interest in combating Iranian influence in Yemen. The Egyptians, the UAE (small country-comparatively large, new Air Force), Jordan, Sudan, and Pakistan have all either already mobilized or have promised to do so, to come to the aid of the Saudis in Yemen.
We have a new Arab coalition, brought about by the exit of the US from the region.
In attempting to isolate Israel, Obama has succeeded only in the isolation of Iran.
Iran has a comparatively small Air Force and huge land based power. Yemen, due to its geography, is a bad place for Iran to make a stand. The Arab Coalition has the advantage in Yemen.
Look for the Houthis to be defeated, and Iran to back out of Yemen. They cannot win there. The Yemeni President will be back in his palace soon. None of the member states of this new Arab coalition can afford for Iran to control the western side of the strait.
This being a more or less a video game, they don't even have the excuse that they lack the fuel and ammo budget to conduct the necessary training.
It does appear that the Pakis and Egyptians have been recruited to do their heavy lifting.
Just like their domestic work.
“This being a more or less a video game, they don’t even have the excuse that they lack the fuel and ammo budget to conduct the necessary training.”
Exactly...the whole point of the UCOFT is to train on the cheap. The UCOFT is not fun at all, though...was quite a ‘chore’. So it looked like the Saudis quickly lost interest.
BTW..I've bookmarked your prediction..we'll see how you did in a few months..
But armored personnel carriers are the only weapons systems they make in country.
This is really getting crazy. Nobody remembers, but the Saudis and the Egyptians fought a war in Yemen in the 1970s.
I think everybody would be wise to take a break and look real close at Iran.
They are rich, they’ve been training with the U.S for 30+ years — when I believe Operation Peace Sun was implemented.
They have 150 F15 fighter jets and probably some odd end ones around and they are well maintained.
They are probably trained better than any other non-combat experienced army.
Now, the Saudis not winning in Yemen doesn't mean the Houthis will invade and conquer Saudi Arabia. Uncle Sam is the ultimate backstop for the Saudis. Even under Obama, the US will not allow any state in the region to unify all of the region's oil resources under one regime.
The Houthis won’t invade..true..but Iran?...Look, Saudi Arabia is the real target in the middle east..That’s what Saddam wanted all along. The Kingdom is a rotten house of cards..ready to implode...and lots of the thousands of royal princes..who will never get to exercise any power..are strong sympathizers with the radicals..and have funded them. Don’t forget that Saudi airliner that left DC right after 9/11..we should have shot it down..
Desert Storm was mounted to send a message to anyone contemplating an invasion of Saudi Arabia - don't even think it. We did it for Kuwait, and we sure as heck would do it for Saudi Arabia. The issue with Saudi Arabia isn't the princes - it's the population. Short of genocide, there's nothing we can do about their radicalism. The Saudi royals pulled back on liberalization after they saw what happened to the Shah. Can't get ahead of popular opinion in these matters.
Muslim radicalism is a global trend fed by universal literacy. China has no Saudi-funded mosques, and their Muslims are radicalized. Christians point to the Prince of Peace as their role model. Buddhists point to Buddha, who was an Indian prince who gave up his birthright to seek enlightenment as a wandering holy man. Muslims have Muhammad, a brigand who made armed conquest a religious obligation. Of course they're violent.
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