Posted on 03/29/2015 7:11:30 AM PDT by parksstp
Can Ted Cruz mathematically win the Republican Nomination? In order to answer this question, it’s important to look at the current rules that are being set in place in each state and territory for the Republican nominating contest. With help from the information presented on the Green Papers, it appears the magic number to win the GOP nomination in 2016 is 1,235 delegates. As we all know, many states have their own rules in how they award delegates, whether they are bound/unbound, whether there is a binding primary or caucus, and whether the Party leader “super-delegates” in each state/territory are bound or not bound.
The primary calendar still seems to be working itself out. Let’s look at potential totals by going in order of the states with the most delegates. For FReepers on this site in support of Cruz or one of the other conservative candidates, it is important that you familiarize yourself with this information like I’m sure our candidates have. If you find your state’s rules “fishy”, then work to fix them before it’s too late. I have no doubt Senator Cruz’s team of experts has delved through this data as well.
(2) TEXAS – 155 Delegates. Texas is an OPEN Primary. It’s scheduled as a “Super Tuesday” State on March 1. 108 Delegates are divided by 3 into each of the 36 Congressional Districts. A candidate that wins a district with a majority vote or is the only one with 20% or more of the vote wins all 3 district delegates, otherwise they split 2-1 with the other person to get over 20%, or 1-1-1 if nobody gets over 20%. 44 Statewide Delegates are allocated based on similar rules. If the Statewide winner gets over 50% or is the only candidate over 20%, they win all 44 delegates, otherwise the 44 delegates are awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote to everyone getting over the 20% threshold. If no one gets over 20% then they are allocated to the highest vote-receivers based on percentage down the list of candidates until they run out. The remaining 3 Superdelegates of the TX GOP leadership go unbound to the convention. Now, looking at CA’s rules and TX’s rules, ask yourself this question. Is it easier or harder for the conservative candidate to get delegates in CA than it is for the RINO to get delegates in TX? Play this out over the country and it makes it difficult for the conservative candidate to compete based on the rules. For Cruz to have a shot, he MUST win 50% statewide in Texas. In an OPEN primary.
(3) NEW YORK – 95 Delegates. New York is a CLOSED Primary. It’s scheduled for Late April It’s rules and allocations are similar to TX with the exception that in the rare case no GOP candidate gets 20% of the votes, the primary results are ignored in awarding delegates. 81 delegates are split into the 27 Congressional districts. Win all 3 if you win a majority or are the only one over 20%, otherwise it’s split. The same is true of the 11 statewide delegates. Win a majority, get them all, otherwise their allocated to everyone who got 20% or more until they run out. The 3 NY GOP Superdelegates attend the convention unbound.
(4) FLORIDA – 99 Delegates – Florida is a CLOSED Primary. It’s scheduled for Mid-March. The new FL law mandated that 2/3 of total delegates would be allocated via Congressional District, however, the law also specifies that the total is rounded DOWN. What this means is that unlike the other states, FL only assigns 2 delegates per each of its 27 Congressional districts. There is no % threshold, whomever wins the most votes in each district wins that district’s 2 delegates. Because of the rounding down rule, that makes 44 delegates awarded at large. All 44 delegates go to the candidate winning the most votes in the FL primary. There are no % thresholds to meet. This includes the 3 FL GOP leaders who are bound to the results of the primary. As someone that lives and knows FL well, this almost assures that whomever wins South Florida will get the bulk of the delegates. That means either a big win for Cruz, or he would have to settle for the rural conservative districts of the Panhandle and North FL, which is probably about 8 districts total.
(5) Illinois – 69 Delegates – Illinois is a LOOPHOLE/OPEN Primary. FReep these blasted rules, someone from IL can probably explain this better. There’s a primary that acts like a beauty contest but may or may not have a bearing on the actual delegate selection. This takes place the same day as the FL primary. 54 delegates are split into the 18 Congressional districts, but some CD’s only get 2 delegates, while others get 4, based on how that CD has voted for the Republican Presidential candidate in previous elections. I’m going to guess that places like the 15th and 18th must be conservative territory and 4th and 7th as RINO territory since their split is 4-4-2-2? The rest of the CD’s have 3 each. The IL GOP then meets at the state convention to choose the remaining 12 delegates, and the 3 IL GOP Party leaders go to the convention unbound. Um, yeah, this sounds like a great way to obtain the will of the people /sarc.
(6) Pennsylvania – 71 Delegates – Pennsylvania is a LOOPHOLE/OPEN Primary. WTF? Another one? There’s approximately 59 delegates allocated between the 18 CD’s. All CD’s get 3 delegates, but 5 CD’s have appeared to have been awarded an extra delegate based on strength and GOP support in the previous elections (4th, 7th, 8th, 12th, 18th). The wording looks like you are voting for delegates instead of Presidential candidates who aren’t bound to anyone. The PA GOP selects the remaining 9 delegates at large and the 3 PA GOP leaders go to the convention unbound.
(7) Ohio – 66 Delegates – OHIO is a MODIFIED Primary. Scheduled on March 8 between Texas and Florida. 48 delegates are split by 3 into each of the 16 Congressional Districts. Whomever receives the most votes in the CD wins all 3 delegates with no % thresholds. For the 15 statewide candidates, if a candidate gets a majority (50%) of the vote, they win all 15, otherwise they are allocated to everyone who got at least 20% of the vote, until they run out. The 3 OH GOP leaders attend the convention unbound. Additionally, it says the delegates are “morally, but not legally bound to the primary results”
(8) Michigan – 59 Delegates – Michigan is a CLOSED Primary. Scheduled on March 8 with OH. If a candidate wins more than 50% of the statewide vote, they win all 56 delegates (the 3 MI GOP Party leaders still attend the convention unbound). If no candidate gets a statewide majority, then 42 delegates are divided by 3 and allocated to the 14 Congressional Districts. Whomever wins the most votes in that CD wins all 3 delegates and there is no % threshold. The remaining 14 at-large delegates are allocated to those getting over 15% of the vote, until they run out.
(9) Georgia – 76 Delegates – Georgia is a MODIFIED Primary. Scheduled on March 1 with TX. 42 Delegates are divided by 3 into 14 CD’s. If a candidate gets more than 50% in a district, they win all 3 delegates, otherwise it is a 2-1 split based on the top two finishers in each district. The remaining 34 delegates are allocated proportionally based on results and a 20% threshold. Unlike FL, even if a candidate gets 50% of the statewide vote, in GA, they still have to split delegates with those getting over 20%., until they run out. How odd, a candidate could win every district with a 50% majority and yet not win all the statewide delegates? See, RINO buffers have been built into the rules in even the most conservative states.
(10) North Carolina – 72 Delegates – NC is a MODIFIED Primary. Scheduled for 26 January (are they going to get penalized?). 69 Delegates are awarded based on the overall statewide-vote. Their doesn’t seem to be a district breakdown or % threshold listed. The remaining 3 NC GOP leaders attend the convention unbound.
(11) New Jersey – 50 Delegates – NJ is a MODIFIED Primary. Scheduled in June before the CA primary and looking like a firewall for the RINO candidate, NJ is simply Winner Take All with no % thresholds. 47 are WTA and while the 3 NJ GOP Leaders go to the convention unbound, it’s unlikely they would vote for anyone else.
(12) Virginia – 49 Delegates – VA is a OPEN Primary. Scheduled on the same day as TX and GA. (March 1 is looking good for the Conservative based on the States for that day). Assuming candidates get on the ballot, 33 delegates are divided by 3 into the 11 CD’s. Whomever receives the most votes in the CD wins all 3 delegates for that district with no % thresholds. For the 13 at large candidates, if a candidate wins 50% of the vote, they win all 13, otherwise their allocated to candidates getting over 15% of the vote until they run out.
That’s all I have time for now, I’ll add the rest later. But this gives you an idea of some of the rules and what work needs to be done or what rules should be changed. You can review the full list of rules at the website link above.
Ted Cruz - The last, best chance to take back the country.
Thank you for the post.
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