[xzins]

His immediate problem is that the conservative base has already shown that it won’t show up to support a moderate. Around four million conservative Republicans didn’t show up on election day in 2012, costing Mitt Romney the election. I was one of those voters, I did not vote in the Presidential race. (I voted in all races down ticket) Those people aren’t going to show up for Jeb Bush.

I am a Ted Cruz supporter. I think, though, that Jeb Bush would not lose the social conservatives as did Romney in 2008. He would lose a new and different branch of conservatism...not defense, not fiscal, not social. I think of them as the 'immigration security conservatives'. They are fed up with illegals taking jobs, taking welfare, lowering wages, and utilizing free health and food programs. They believe this open border nonsense is insecure: it gives opportunity for enemies, disease, and freeloaders to injure our great nation.

How large is this group? It gave the GOP their victory this fall. It includes social, defense, and fiscal conservatives, so it is probably larger than any one of those groups.

Jeb Bush will announce against open borders, amnesty, and illegals or he will lose in the general election: same as Dole, McCain, and Romney.

[don-o]

Jeb Bush failed to save Terri Schiavo from a court order murder carried out in his state on his watch. Period. End of story.

[tanknetter]

Good analysis.

I’d add that the “4 Million lost Conservative votes” in 2012 is something of a myth. Reading the Breitbart article on Orca, the issue (seeminly) wasn’t that they stayed home, but rather weren’t actively turned out to vote. There’s a bug difference between the two.

[Flag_This]

"Jeb Bush will announce against open borders, amnesty, and illegals or he will lose in the general election: same as Dole, McCain, and Romney."

He can announce it until he's blue in the face, but he'll be lying through his teeth.