Posted on 11/11/2014 5:32:44 AM PST by LeoMcNeil
The Democrats have a Barack Obama problem. It isn’t simply that the President is unpopular and thus the prime reason why the Democrats lost last week’s elections. Their Obama problem runs much deeper than that. In the last six elections that did not include Obama at the top of the ticket, the Democrats have lost five of them. Only their 2006 win over a battered President George W. Bush keeps the Republicans from a full sweep. While Democrats have spent the last week trying to convince themselves that the midterm electorate is different from the presidential electorate, the reality is much different. The Obama presidential electorate may have been different but the general presidential electorate is not. With Obama not on the ticket in 2016, the Democrats may be in trouble.
In 2008 and 2012 Obama was able to convince blacks and young people to vote for him in large enough numbers to win. When those people stayed home, as they did in 2010 and 2014, the Democrats lost. They came to vote for Obama, they did not necessarily plan to stick around as lifelong ardent Democrats. Yet that is exactly what the Democrat Party has been banking on. It’s unlikely that the black vote is going to shift to the Republicans in 2016 but if blacks don’t bother to vote because Obama isn’t at the top of the ticket, such will be a serious drag for the Democrats chances. Some blacks are beginning to turn on both Obama and the Democrats. That doesn’t mean they’re shifting Republican but if enough blacks decide to stay home because they’re unhappy with the Democrats, that will really hurt the Democrat nominee’s chances of becoming President.
Young people are even more likely to shift away from Democrats. The young Obama Democrats of 2008 will be the newly married, soon to be starting a family upper 20 somethings of 2016. A lot of these people bought into Obama’s hope and change rhetoric only to see him largely fail to bring the country both hope and change. Nothing hurts a political party more than when young people become cynical and disillusioned after being so excited about a candidate. Make no mistake, the Democrat nominee will win the new crop of young people in 2016. However, that candidate is unlikely to win in overwhelming fashion like Obama did. The new crop of young people views Obama as old news and a major part of the problem. They’re more conservative, more Republican and their quicker to blame Democrats than the young people of 2008. Meanwhile the old young people are starting the stage in life where many people become more conservative. None of this is good for the Democrats.
The Republicans control 69 of 99 state legislative chambers. The Democrats defeat is going to be long lasting. It is usually from state legislatures that a party picks candidates for House, Senate and Governor. The Democrats were wiped out in 2010 and even more so in 2014. This is going to create a serious drag for the party going forward into 2016 and beyond. Without Obama at the top of the ticket, the Democrats couldn’t do anything to stop the Republicans. The only thing that has stopped the Republicans in the last decade was George W. Bush and that only happened after he was in office for six years. Going forward, the Democrats have less to work with because they lost so many seats at the lower levels of government.
There is of course no guarantee that the Republicans will win in 2016. They will have plenty of opportunities to outrage the electorate or otherwise blow their chances over the next two years. Failing to pass an agenda through Congress is one thing that could hurt their chances, likewise nominating a weak, moderate candidate is another. If the GOP nominates another McCain or Romney, they’ll be shooting themselves in the foot. Likewise, a loudmouth like Chris Christie is likely to lose because of his unnecessary brashness. To say nothing of Christie (and McCain and Romney) being the sort of candidate who cannot unite the Republican base. Nevertheless, the Republicans are in great shape going forward. Obama won’t be on the ticket and it’s unlikely any Democrat will be able to match the enthusiasm he generated. While the Democrats insist Presidential electorate will be different than the midterms, it’s highly unlikely to be the case.
The country has an Obama problem.
There is only group who can reel Obama in.
It is the group who has the most to lose if Obama keeps being Obama.
The Democrats.
This is why the Dems will make Obama break the laws on immigration and get impeached. That’ll get out their racist voters in 2016.
And it’s fitting that it’s finally Obama’s turn to be thrown under the bus...
There is a guarantee they will lose if they prop disgusting RINO backstabbers into nominations. They will lose if they compromise on principles instead of stopping and reversing the Obama agenda NOW.
This was the "put up or shut up" election for Republicans. Either they stand by those who elected them, or they lose and the nation continues its trajectory to the trash heap of failed civilizations.
Yes it does have an Obama problem, the dems that is. Obama every day demonstrates exactly what a liberal leftist is: no compromise, my way or the highway, and if you don’t support me and my ideas, I will harass you with the power of the government. That may be why most dems did not want them anywhere near their campaigns because seeing him equated everyone of them with how they operate. They are the modern day NAZIs.
The democrats are not alone, the world, including the U.S. has an obumbo problem.
Oh, really? What was the first clue? America has had an Obama problem since 2008!!
In 2016 unless the GOP puts out a strong, likeable, articulate conservative candidate who can convey the message of conservatism the Rats will have an advantage.
Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush types need not apply. Putting up a milquetoast RINO is a loser of a choice but the GOP-e is just stupid enough to repeat it again.
The fastest growing segment of the population is not Hispanics. It is people over 65, the demographic that voted 57% Republican last Tuesday. This is the Common Sense bloc that knows you can’t have a progressive utopia based on taking money from the workers and giving it to the shirkers. Perhaps ObamaCare was designed to shrink this demographic. Beware, seasoned citizens!
They sure do.
And it appears they have no way out because he is doubling-down on everything.
The country has a moron problem. How does a Bammy get elected (twice no less) with voters who aren’t educated or willfully ignorant or defiant of a adhering to constitutional principles in a candidate. Whether 8 years of the Bamster and hack Dems will convince enough of them to change course remains to be seen. Again unless we have a full bore gung-ho conservative candidate as a viable alternative then it probably won’t change that scenario.
I agree with you. Other than the fact that the one way Republicans can somehow manage to screw-up their huge advantage with seniors is to try and reform Social Security again.
In principle I agree with it. The program NEEDS reform.
But politically, it’s just suicide.
Strange times.
The country has a moron problem. How does a Bammy get elected (twice no less) with voters who aren’t educated or willfully ignorant or defiant of a adhering to constitutional principles in a candidate. Whether 8 years of the Bamster and hack Dems will convince enough of them to change course remains to be seen. Again unless we have a full bore gung-ho conservative candidate as a viable alternative then it probably won’t change that scenario.
I believe, in actuality, that we have a Valerie Jarrett problem.
If she were removed from the scene, 90% of our nation would see Obama to be the idiot that he is - for then he would be truly helpless.
She is the monster pulling the strings.
We all need to pray that she will be exposed along with O’s dependency on her. Inner WH staff seem to know this.........
A little kaopectate should take care of it.
That this Republic was founded upon principles is irrelevant. And businesses were founded upon principles as were business transactions [A man's bond was his word and he did as he said he would] does not matter in the era of political correctness.
Some people will buy a hoopty if it has a nice sound system and is the right color.
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