I don’t think the number of arrests in cuba have ever depended on US action or presence worldwide.
Maybe a false belief that Raul is a softie compared to Castro is emboldening activists.
Or, it might have something to do w/global warming. Natives getting restless in the heat and all that.
I believe Reagan had them back on their heels... they knew the world was watching anyway, unlike now were Europeans vacation there and look the other way