What are your thoughts of the number of cases in a month or three?
Yah know, I took a stab at it prior to the situation going out of control. It exceeded those estimates a few weeks ago. Now that the horses are out of the barn, there is no way of forecasting it, unless you are expert at the Chaos Theory.
I suppose if one had all the inputs, and real time data, you might be able to forecast the peak perhaps..but factoring in social conditions, law enforcement effectiveness, population controls and the willingness to listen to authorities, and no real time data,.............
It’s impossible right now to say..guess, or do a off the wall speculation.
Based on the rates we are getting now, I don’t see how they came to their numbers. They must be expecting a mathematical doubling for each time period they used, to get to that, and looking at the geography, the fact that there were about 4 million people in 2010, many being in Monrovia or vicinity (Liberia being the worst), I think it possible to get to the CDC numbers by the end of 2015 if it does not peak sooner.
But I think that is what we in the US are trying to prevent, and I think that it’s possible to put a dent in it. But they need a lot of help and I think we should give it to them.