Posted on 09/02/2014 5:34:50 AM PDT by MichCapCon
There can be no question that the Michigan economy is recovering — only about the magnitude of the growth. The level of growth depends on where you look. As we get closer to the November general election, more people will question the degree of growth and whether the Snyder administration and Legislature has helped or hindered the state recovery.
Gov. Snyder and his campaign team claim he has helped create "more than 275,000 jobs." Let's take a deeper look at that number.
There have been substantial job gains in the payroll survey during Gov. Snyder's first term. This is a monthly survey that goes out to a sample of employers to find out how many jobs are in Michigan businesses and in what industries. Its releases are frequently in the news. Since December 2010 — the last month prior to the Snyder administration — Michigan added 269,700 jobs. This is a 7 percent increase in the number of jobs in businesses in Michigan.
The largest gains were in manufacturing industries (which sustained heavy losses in the recent recession and through Michigan’s decade-long recession) and professional and business services, which includes consultants, temporary employment groups, and employee leasing agencies among others. The transportation equipment manufacturing sector accounts for roughly 40 percent of the growth in the manufacturing field.
Click to enlarge
A different look comes from the household survey. This samples a number of Michigan residents and finds out how many people are employed and unemployed. This is a similar measure of employment but it looks at the number of people in Michigan who are employed rather than the number of jobs in Michigan businesses.
The household survey shows a substantial but more mitigated recovery. Employment increased by 217,115 jobs — a 5.2 percent gain.
A separate measure covering information from all employers that participate in the unemployment insurance system also gives a look at the employment picture. This is the quarterly census of employment and wages and gives the most detailed look at employment by sector. Unlike the two monthly surveys, information from this project lags by two quarters. From December 2010 to December 2013, this source showed an increase of 251,835 in jobs — a 6.5 percent gain.
It should also be noted that the recovery began prior to the beginning of the Snyder administration in these three data sources.
Click to enlarge
These two are monthly snapshots of the economic picture. As such, they hide some of the changes in the economy. Businesses are constantly being created, others adding jobs, more losing jobs, and some closing. While on net there are more jobs in Michigan, there’s been a lot more creation and loss.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Dynamics data, Michigan added 2,520,816 jobs and lost 2,271,762 jobs since 2011 began, showing a net gain of 249,054 jobs.
But the rates of both job growth and job loss fell slightly.
Click to enlarge
Even though these trends are down, there is a substantial amount of job turnover suggesting that the best way to improve the economy is to enact broad-based improvements to the business climate. The Snyder administration has many accomplishments on this front — for instance, a right-to-work law, replacing the Michigan Business Tax with a smaller and less burdensome corporate income tax, and creating new exemptions to the personal property tax, among others. And there’s perhaps a chance that his efforts to get employers connected with job seekers can help.
The impact of these policies on the scope and direction of the state’s recovery is a good question. In 2012, University of Michigan economist Don Grimes found that the state’s job growth cannot be fully explained by its industrial mix. The size of the gains, however, was much less than the total increase in job growth. That is to say that policy may be playing a role in the state’s job growth, but the general economic recovery does as well.
There is much to be optimistic about Michigan, especially since this recovery is the first sustained increase in employment since 2000. There have been millions of jobs created and lost, mostly without direct permission or encouragement by policymakers. Governors have some ability to change policies to create growth and Michigan performed stronger than can be expected.
Now what a silly question. As the lyin’ king has let us know, you didn’t do that, somebody else did that. :>}
Must be counting all the Guatemalan blueberry pickers. Things are looki g UP!
See what happens when you put someone in charge who does not work to dole out all the goodies to his friends?
That’s weird. I thought they all got sent back to where they came from since they’re no where to be found now. :>}
That being the John Engler (R) administration, IIRC. And then came the notorious Jennifer Granholm.
If he only created one (1) job, it would be 100% better than the jobs UNcreated by that BLITHERING IDIOT, Jennifer Grandholm, the previous Michigan gov. She was a Foursquare, 24 carot, absolute disaster for 8 years. I know...I was there.
There are plenty of things for a conservative to dislike about Snyder but plenty of good things have happened on his watch as well.
Engler drove a lot of people off the welfare rolls. They complained and threw tantrums but most of them probably see it as a good thing today.
I know a woman who was among those driven off welfare. She didn’t like it at the time but today she says if it weren’t for Engler she would probably still be living in a craphole apartment in the hood and her son would be in prison. Instead she and her husband own a nice home and her son is an oilfield welder in North Dakota.
The only job a governor can create is a government job Every government job is a drain on the economy, not a benefit to it. So he wants credit for 275,000 drains?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.