Posted on 06/10/2014 7:38:32 PM PDT by BobL
First - You have to fight your battles one at a time. We needed to STOP the Republicans on their Amnesty roll this session of Congress (first). We likely did that by defeating Cantor. Think about it - the Republican leadership taps a low level House Republican from Manville Arkansas (for example) who's been on the fence about Amnesty. They say to him: "We REALLY need your vote here to pass Amnesty and we know you're considering it. Well, House elections are every two years, so it won't be long before his next Primary. He knows that a vote for Amnesty will now ASSURE him a Tea Party challenge in 2 years, and he likely (certainly) doesn't have nearly the advantage that Cantor had - be it money, power, name recognition, or even a weak opponent (i.e., the Tea Party will now provide even stronger opponents). So, where does he stand NOW on Amnesty? I strongly think that he will tell the leadership to get lost...and that applies right through the Lame Duck Session. So while the Establishment may still want Amnesty, they will have a much tougher time rounding up the 17 Republican votes they need to pass it, assuming every Democrat is for Amnesty (not necessarily a given).
Second: What if Cantor wins as a write-in. First, Cantor has not talked that...he just may not bother with it. And if he does - big deal - he still lost his Primary, so the same thing above applies. The other Republicans in the House, again, would much prefer to not be defeated in their next Primary - they will understand that, in many (if not most or nearly all) cases, if they try to do a write-in after losing their primary, the Democrat will (or the Republican they lost to) will win. Amnesty will not be something worth betting your entire career in the House on.
Third: What if Brat doesn't win in November? Who cares...while holding that seat would be good, the key is that we just sent an incredibly powerful message to the Open Borders bunch. Their day is over. If a Democrat wins the seat, any Democrat, we still come out way ahead, as we will not be fighting our own party through the rest of the year. One seat in the House is not a huge deal...especially when we're looking to increase our majority anyway - there are 435 seats there. Having Cantor in a position to ram Amnesty down our throats was much more dangerous to the future of this country than one flipped seat.
Fourth: No matter what happens now, we can fight the upcoming battles, and maybe even start winning some more big ones.
Bottom Line: NOTHING TO FEAR. It is the Rove and The Establishment that are now quaking in their boots - they have to figure out, very quickly, how they are going to take control back from the Tea Party, because right now, they the Tea Party is owning the Republican Party.
“Barring an independent candidate, the winner of the GOP primary will more than likely be the next 7th district representative because Virginia’s 7th Congressional District Democrats cancelled their convention and did not nominate anyone to run against the eventual GOP nominee.”
http://www.wusa9.com/story/news/politics/2014/06/09/virginia-voters-guide-june-10-primary/10240113/
you made some very good points.
but i hope the “write-in” talk gets dialed down.
we don’t need to be borrowing trouble after such a great victory.
cantors super super super liberal wife who is a board member for REVLON, shaped his views and philosophy...he deserved to lose BIG on immigration/NSA
1) The Leadership team has been a absolute failure
2) Amnesty is an election killer for Republicans
3) Cantor and his staff have become downright disrespectful to their district and answered only to the K-Street whores
Not sure which order...but all three were the keys...also, listening to Dave Brat tonight, he did a very good job communicating a good core conservative alternative...he asked people 1) are we in the right direction? 2) he offered popular and correct solutions.
Good analysis. The GOPe is crapping their pants right now to see Cantor, who was supposed to cruise to an easy victory, easily and decisively.
Virginia has a sore loser law so its unlikely Cantor will try a write in candidacy. I doubt he is done and hopefully he got the right message tonight. People who worked hard to defeat Cantor only gained ground because of an increasingly bi-polar Cantor and then just before the election he comes out with “amnesty for kids” call for a compromise with Obama. It was just stupid. I knew something was up given all the ads I heard this past weekend because Cantor has never won with less than a super majority in this custom designed super conservative district. Brat won’t lose provided he gets funded and if we don’t fund him then that is a black mark against us. The one player that has potential to screw this up is the shadow GOP which is a small group of power brokers that expect everyone to kiss their butts and if they don’t get adequately kissed they help Democrats win. I still don’t see the Democrats having a chance in hell in the 7th CD regardless.
Hopefully everyone will come together and fight to defeat Democrats but moderates often quickly morph into liberals when they don’t get their way.
Yea, thanks. I saw that. I was really responding to some of the fear I saw in other threads. My point was that the world will WOULD end if Amnesty got passed, but WOULD NOT end if Cantors seat did, somehow, flip.
But as it is, Brat is STRONG candidate, and he will likely be well-funded in November against against any candidate, even a Cantor write-in attempt, and will very likely win - which to me is just icing on the cake.
In my opinion Cantor is not a bad guy....If he has it in him he will come back another day...(Does anyone remember that Nixon won then lost then won again)
BUT Cantor and the Washington crowd damn well ought to go home and talk to the locals.. They are all disconnected as they can be from the electorate. AND THIS IS A GREAT LESSON TO ALL OF THEM
And the only Immigration reform needs to be the enforcement of all laws that are now on the books.
“And the only Immigration reform needs to be the enforcement of all laws that are now on the books.”
Damn right. And the only hope for that was Brat’s victory tonight. HOW SWEET IT IS!!!
Someone on Kelly show predicted that because of this Obama now knows no amnesty bill will leave the house so he will sign his executive amnesty order even sooner.
Even with all those illegal kids crossing the border.
I think the lame-duck RINOs who lost their nominations like Cantor will do everything they can to jam amnesty through the day after the mid-term elections.
Cantor is no Nixon. He is finished. Period.
“Someone on Kelly show predicted that because of this Obama now knows no amnesty bill will leave the house so he will sign his executive amnesty order even sooner.”
So be it. Hopefully we find the gonads to get the courts to put an end to this garbage.
In any case, I would MUCH RATHER have this issue strictly in Obama’s lap, than have the Republican fingerprints all over it, as that would have killed our chances in November, as they Republican base would have, again, stayed home.
/johnny
You- and everyone, don’t feel bad- miss the big picture.
It’s another vote against Speaker Boehner, and only five more votes were needed.
God bless the House and those conservatives who realize it’s importance this election.
None of the others wants to be primaried like he was.
/johnny
“I think the lame-duck RINOs who lost their nominations like Cantor will do everything they can to jam amnesty through the day after the mid-term elections.”
Other than Cantor, I doubt that there are too many lame-duck RINOs to begin with (i.e., most Reps leaving Congress are conservatives, believe it or not). So if those want to try that stunt, they won’t have much company, because anyone thinking about their next Primary (i.e., 95% of House Republicans) will now think VERY HARD before joining them - as that next Primary will then only be in just over a year for them.
“You just smashed the arguments of all the GOP-E concern trolls running around on FR tonight. They’ve been going from a play-book.”
Thanks Johnny. I didn’t think my replies were getting through on the other threads, so I figured this was a better way to communicate.
He should win this Republican district handily. But even if he doesn't, it's not really a loss -- that seat was never really ours the whole time Cantor was in it working against us.
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