Is Your Job About To Be Outsourced By A Computer (The Probability Is 47%)

Zero Hedge ^ | 12/11/2013 | Tyler Durden

[SeekAndFind]

Productivity. Every employer loves it, and every employee is fascinated by it, especially if it comes in cute colors, a retina screen, and weighs under a pound... at least until such time as "productivity" results in the loss of the employee's job, which in turn makes the employer love it even more as it results in even higher profits, even if it means one more pink slip and a 91 million people outside the labor force.

With a labor force already in turmoil as millions drop out every year never to be heard from again, made obscolete by the latest technological and computerized innovation, and students stuck in college where they pile up record amounts of student loans (at last check well over $1 trillion) hoping form some job, any job, upon graduation, unfortunately the future is not bright at all.

In a recently published paper, "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation," Oxford researchers Frey and Osborne, look at the probability of computerization by occuption. What they find is shocking for nearly half of the US labor force, and especially those in the transportation, production, office support, sales, service and extraction professions.

JPM's Michael Cembalest summarizes it as follows:

Life after college: be prepared for technology to continue changing the job landscape

There’s plenty of data on unemployment rates and salaries by undergraduate major (the majors with the lowest unemployment rates and highest salaries: computer, chemical, electrical, civil and mechanical engineering; math/physics; and economics. Drama and film majors are a recipe for living at home). A more important long-run issue to think about may be how technology affects your career. Researchers at Oxford just published an analysis assessing what jobs might be computerized in the future. Their conclusion: a staggering 47% of the US workforce, spanning a range of career types. There are vigorous debates about outsourcing, but increasingly, computerization may grow as a factor affecting employment conditions.

 

 

In The Man in the White Suit, Alec Guinness invents a suit that never has to be cleaned or replaced. London’s tailors and dry cleaners angrily chase him down in the street  to destroy his invention. They are relieved when the suit finally starts to unravel, since the fiber’s design is flawed. Productivity improvements are great things, but there might be a point at which too much power shifts to capital over labor. Anyway, when you think about a career, remember that in some professions, eventually a computer might be able to do it too, or reduce the economic value of you doing it (e.g., the impact of the internet on print journalism).

The good news: those iPad apps are cheap, and most unemployed workers - who were put out of a job thanks to one - can afford them. The bad news: anyone lamenting the return of America's employment golden age, is kindly encouraged to exhale.

[Pox]

Until those computers can physically repair themselves, the probability for me is %0.

[Viking2002]

I eke out a living keeping these infernal things running. Having said that, I'm also acquiring new skills in anticipation of the next Carrington Event. Like almost anything our noggins cook up, they were a useful tool let run amok.

[Blood of Tyrants]

And until programmable logic controllers and human-machine interfaces can program themselves, I’m safe, too.

[babygene]

“Until those computers can physically repair themselves, the probability for me is %0.”

Don’t look now, but even though they can’t repair themselves, if they become disposable it’s the same thing...

I’ll give you an example. In 1985, A 300MB disk drive was as big as a washing machine, consumed 1000 watts of power and listed at 30,000 dollars. They were (BTW) slower than the 8GB USB thumb drive that costs <$10 today that take almost no power.

[Dogbert41]

Robot serves up to 360 hamburger per hour.

And they look mighty fine to me!

[Pox]

I’ve been working in this field prior to example A to the present, and although the technology improves, the implementations and use are still more or less the same, with notable improvements.

That being said, the modular approach has changed the way I perform my job, but I do more than just break/fix. I’ve learned over the years how to leverage the knowledge I’ve acquired and have continued to expand my knowledge base at more or less the same rate the technology has improved while increasing my value with analytical skills along with logistical experiences to be able to offer more than just a narrow set of capabilities.

As the technology has improved over the decades, computers are much better at “knowing” they aren’t functioning properly, but they’re still nowhere near being able to fully understand all functional aspects that encompass their operation. The day will come when my skills are no longer needed, but that day will likely not be in my lifetime.

[Paulie]

“Until those computers can physically repair themselves, the probability for me is %0”

Ever hear of robots? Artificial intelligence?

[Junk Silver]

“Until those computers can physically repair themselves, the probability for me is %0.”

No doubt that your technical skills will keep you in demand, but Apple has made a point in recent years of designing disposable products that aren’t intended to ever be repaired. The Retina MacBook Pros have their batteries and memory soldered in, and the whole Apple-care system is basically set up to encourage the purchase of a new computer every three years.

Someone will create a good living in a few years figuring out how to replace the batteries and otherwise restoring these “un-repairable” gadgets.

[TheRhinelander]

Not mine. I work on process control software. I’m the one putting people out of work.

[Pox]

Considering what I do for a living, in my lifetime my skills cannot be replaced outside of another human.

[Pox]

True, and that approach will someday obsolete my overall usefulness, but not in my lifetime.

I'm maintaining, and much more in fact, the systems that keep corporations functioning, that keep all of the wonderful weapon systems improving and logistical systems that keep the country running smoothly. I'm not talking about personal electronics nor simple PC’s, but server farms, mainframes, and larger constructs that simply cannot be completely functioning without significant a human presence (at this point in time of course) at multiple levels.

[ToastedHead]

"Scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have developed a new app for smart phones that, when combined with a thin, cheap lens, could give inexpensive and accurate eyeglass prescriptions to smart phone owners...

After loading the app, a user attaches a short, conical viewfinder (about $2 now, although Raskar thinks that will soon drop to 50 cents) to the screen of their high-resolution cell phones and peers in. A series of patterns appear. The user aligns the patterns by pushing buttons on the phone. The more button is pushed, the worse a person's eyesight....

The app repeats this process four times, one for each axis of the eye. During the process the app also measures other abnormalities, such as astigmatism. Once all the patterns have been lined up, the app spits out a person's eyeglass prescription."

Eyeball App

[HeartlandOfAmerica]

And nobody to spit on it beforre it gets to the customer!

[alexander_busek]

[...] anyone lamenting the return of America's employment golden age, is kindly encouraged to exhale.

Why would anyone lament a return to the "Golden Age?"

On the contrary, wouldn't that be something to extoll, to tout, or to celebrate?

Regards,

[Moonman62]

I know how to deal with these job stealing computers.

[cynwoody]

From the PDF:

Less than ten years ago, in the chapter “Why People Still Matter”, Levy and Murnane (2004) pointed at the difficulties of replicating human perception, asserting that driving in traffic is insusceptible to automation: “But executing a left turn against oncoming traffic involves so many factors that it is hard to imagine discovering the set of rules that can replicate a driver’s behaviour [. . . ]”. Six years later, in October 2010, Google announced that it had modified several Toyota Priuses to be fully autonomous (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2011).

[babygene]

“That being said, the modular approach has changed the way I perform my job, but I do more than just break/fix.”

Well, that’s the key... I was luckily able to retire from HP in 2001 at 55. It’s actually more complicated today than it ever was. You just have to keep ahead of all the new people coming on-board. And you’ll be fine.

[catnipman]

My job is fixing broken computers: broken hardware, operating systems, and software. I feel pretty secure.

[Pining_4_TX]

I enjoy reading Zero Hedge sometimes, but they have to be the most pessimistic, gloomiest people on earth. They have been predicting a complete collapse of everything for at least a few years now.

Whether we like it or not, change will not stop. In the past, new technology has made life better and created new jobs to replace the old. There is always some bad with the good, but the only thing we can do is prepare for the future as best we can. Life is a messy business. Anyone who thinks they will find some quiet peaceful existence in this life has been watching too many TV commercials.