Posted on 11/21/2013 8:31:15 AM PST by whitedog57
Janet Yellen has been approved as Federal Reserve Chair by the US Senate Banking Panel. And the Philadelphia Fed Index plunged to 6.5 in November from 19.8 in October. Economists were expecting a read of 15.
Philly Fed Nov
More troubling in the Philadelphia Fed report is the decline in average employee workweek.
Philly Fed Details Oct
Of course, Janet Yellen being approved by the Senate Banking Panel has nothing to do with the Philly Fed Index plunge. Or does it? Yellen has been on the Bernanke QE team and we know that it has not been successful restoring life to Main Street. Here is a chart of nominal GDP growth rates over time. It isn’t a great case for The Fed’s quantitative easing model that Yellen clearly embraces.
nomgdpyoy (1)
Now for the fun part. Initial jobless claims came out this morning and printed at 323,000. This is lower than the expectation of 335,000, a beat (if you believe the numbers). What is interesting is that 323,000 initial jobless claims is lower than any point during the “Reagan Recovery” despite the lower population in the 1980s. So, The Fed should note that this measure of employment should signal a taper.
Continuing jobless claims printed at 2,870,000 which is above average. This measure is likely weighing on The Fed until it improves.
On the other hand, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell -0.2% in October. The Fed interprets this measure as a lack of inflation. Hence, The Fed may interpret this measure as a sign that quantitative easing isn’t damaging to the economy. OR, quantitative easing isn’t working.
So, there you have it. Another day of mixed signals to confuse The Fed and Janet Yellen.
Sarpeidon_prosecutor
Well...NOT until a Republican is elected...then they can blame it on them!
Perhaps I'm wrong but I believe that the PPI
does not include
Food, electricity or home heating fuel.
All of which are rising rapidly.
I see the stock market balloon is being inflated more today.
Bullish, bullish, bullish.
All of it.
The market LOVES, ADORES the prospect of overt crony capitalism and endless money pumping.
Don’t overthink it. The market has no connection to reality, until it does....at that point, if you are in it, you will generally be ahead, and if you can watch it, you should be able to escape green. If you bet against against it ESPECIALLY during Tgiving > Xmas, you’ll have a horrible Xmas season while everyone else is having a great time.
There is no way the Fed can permit a cruddy Xmas season. No way at all. They won’t. They never do. This is the most bullish segment of the year, it doesn’t matter “how far we’ve come”, it doesn’t matter that the numbers are both increasingly suspect and are weakening. Bet against it at your own peril.
She’s going to make Bernanke look like a miser.
Continuing the low-motion destruction of the Republic in ‘progress’...
Continuing the slow-motion destruction of the Republic in 'progress'...
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