Skip to comments.What Does a Currency Collapse Look Like?
Posted on 07/15/2013 3:55:10 PM PDT by Kartographer
We are all familiar with the concept of inflation, which is the intentional byproduct of the Federal Reserve. But I am not just talking inflation, Im speaking about hyperinflation which is caused by the collapse of the value of the currency resulting in runaway prices. Here are three examples of how quickly a currency collapse can occur when a nations money when its money no longer holds it value:
1. In Weimar Germany, from 1922 1923, prices doubled every three days.
2. In the modern era, in Yugoslavia from 1992-94, witnessed prices doubling every 34 hours.
3. In Zimbabwe, in the two year period from 2007 2008, prices doubled every 25 hours.
History is replete with examples of currency collapses and they typically follow very predictable patterns in which a nation unravels and social chaos, and many times, widespread violence and even genocide becomes part of the national landscape.
(Excerpt) Read more at shtfplan.com ...
It's an amazing read.
My question would be, not WILL it happen here in the USSA, but CAN it happen?
What I mean is, aren’t there enough precautions and safeguards in place that would kick in and prevent a freefall, but rather make a soft slide?
I don’t pretend to be a financial novice, which is why I ask...
Hold on to coins, folks; silver coins aren't made anymore, but the metal content will give every coin some value.
In 1999 Ecuador’s currency collapsed.
Overnight, the government closed the banks and froze all bank accounts. People had to get by for about a month on what money they had in their pockets and what food they had in their pantry. Neighbors helped neighbors, families pulled together, but it was not easy.
The banks re-opened within a couple of weeks as I recall, and after a couple more, the paychecks started rolling again, this time denominated in dollars. They did away with the Sucre and adopted the US dollar as the official currency. The middle and upper class had been dollarized for years anyway, this just extended the dollar to the working and poorer classes.
When the banks re-opened, the Sucre to dollar exchange was about 20% of what it had been before. So overnight people got an 80% cut in pay, and saw their groceries go up 5 times. Obviously things then had to find a new equilibrium.
Frozen accounts were returned to their owners about 18 months later as I recalled, paid at the new rate (about 20 cents on the dollar).
That’s the down side. The up side is that by adopting the dollar they stabilized the economy, mostly eliminated inflation, and the economy turned around. They overthrew the president that did it, but kept his reforms.
These sorts of articles are annoying because they compress years worth of bad news to look like it all happens in a week.
Here is the Weimar hyperinflation chart. It took five years, and everybody saw it coming.
Here is the Zimbabwe hyperinflation chart. They had years of bad inflation until 2000, and from there it was a curve much like Germany.
The same with Yugoslavia, except that they also used redenomination, say 10,000 of the old currency is worth 1 of the new currency, so it’s a bit harder to track. And yet it still took years.
So the bottom line is that if you had $10,000 at home, you would likely see such problems coming from a long way off. And it wouldn’t matter if there was a bank holiday, or a credit collapse, etc., because you have your money under your control and can act on it without anyone else’s permission.
Of course you knew I would comment on the above. When banks can't function, trucks don't move and people starve and die due to no food, no water. Now, that we have covered that, the serious question is:
DO YOU HAVE A BUCKET?...DO YOU HAVE A BOTTLE OR TUBE OF VASELINE?
I am putting together a container garden on my back deck. Two days ago, I was working out there and needed a bucket. I go in the small outside storage room to get a bucket. I was not the outdoor type until I had to do this myself. I thought we had buckets - doesn't everyone have buckets? There was one blue bucket completely split apart - it was junk and I had no bucket.
So, the next day I'm in Walmart and pass cleaning supplies and there are buckets. I bought two buckets with handles, 10 qt. buckets, at about $2 a piece. Two, one dollar bills will not hold water or soil or anything. If there were no buckets to be had to buy, how much would these two buckets be worth? Do you think you have one bucket or more? When is the last time you looked at your bucket or buckets? Are you sure it or they are still working buckets?
I had a small fever blister on the outside of my lip. It is healing but the skin was dry and bothered me. Went in downstairs bathroom as I remembered there was a tube of Vaseline in there that we used in dealing with some of my husband's dry skin from having radiation.
I couldn't find the tube of Vaseline. Maybe I took it upstairs to put it with other medical supplies. No, it wasn't there. Back to the downstairs bathroom, maybe I put it in the cabinet under that sink. Yes, there it was.
I thought I had a small jar of Vaseline as well but it didn't turn up in looking for the tube. I had one tube of Vaseline that wasn't full. What would a tube or bottle of Vaseline be worth if none could be had? The next time I go to the drug store, I'm buying a few jars and tubes of Vaseline.
How long has it been since you considered your medical supplies and actually looked at them? Do you even know where some of them are? My buckets and Vaseline revelation metaphorically translates into every supply you think you have. How long have your supplies been stored - both outside and inside? Have they split or spilled or dried up?
Use your money to assemble what you must have to live as well as possible on your own. Then you know you have those supplies and if they triple in cost, you spent your money well.
Old Sarge, is the oil you need for your tools to work well, still good? Do you know where it is?
I LOVE buckets. Got lots of ‘em. I’m a bucket hoarder.
In fact, when I packed up some cornmeal several months ago - I had PETE (food grade) buckets available. But no, I couldn’t use those - I had to go get some more so I still had a supply ;)
And those beautiful Home Depot buckets are awesome for lots of non-food related used. Although, I do think the Walmart buckets you talked about are still cheaper - especially if you want lids. Gotta have a supply of lids as well.
I have a clothes washing device that works with a bucket. You can make a bucket into a toilet as well (I don’t have that seat yet). I also have some domed water filters that use a 2 bucket system.
Pretty neat things.
ps. I also have a Vaseline collection - that stuff is a good buy at the dollar store. I use it nightly for my rough feet now, but it’ll have many more uses later on, as you pointed out. I just bought a new supply, only to find out I already bought 2 or 3 supplies years ago. As long as it’s not in the heat, it’ll last and last.
Five years is not that long. It starts out as inflation at first, then accelerates into hyperinflation fast. So what would you propose if we started experiencing “mild inflation” and no policies were changed?
But those in Germany who had gold took their gold across the border & purchased Swiss francs which had fungible value anywhere in Europe.
Real question: how do U.S. holders of gold turn it into food, fuel, & other essentials? I don’t know, but I believe silver U.S. cartwheels can be far more easily exchanged for those things than gold. Thoughts?
Take your buckets. Put them inside a plastic 55 gallon garbage can that has a lid. Then shove some tarps, a case of bottled water or two, some rope, some AimNflame lighters, rope, a box cutter, or whatever else is appropriate to your particular situation.
You’ll be surprised how much gear you can shove into one or two of those bad boys.
I can’t imagine what safeguards there are that people would just assume that a currency devaluation couldn’t occur here. For one thing, one of the biggest safeguards was repealed during the Clinton era-Glass Steagel Act. I don’t have the time or the inclination to list all the other crap that has undermined our financial system.
There have always been doom and gloom types predicting economic collapse for as long as I remember. For the most part I would just shake my head, and say never bet against the American economy or American ingenuity, and wasn’t overly concerned.
However, these are different times than I have ever seen. The great inflation of the Nixon, Carter, Reagan years was truly a hardship and was becoming scary-we were on a very bad path indeed, but some sensible government policies and reform helped industry to get going and helped to tame inflation.
I also learned during those years, the downside of price controls. All they do is to lead to empty shelves in the stores. I learned a lot of valuable economic lessons during that time period, but apparently there are lots of people in government today who never learned or have forgotten those lessons.
Once upon a time Great Britain was the big cheese - the sun never set on the British Empire-remember? The British Sterling was the world’s reserve currency, and yet the mighty did fall, and the sterling gave way to the dollar as the reserve currency. It’s very important to keep that status, especially when we owe so much money.
How in the heck do you make sure we don’t lose it? Well, right now, the dollar stinks, but in comparison to the others it smells like a rose. Still, the signs are there, movements are afoot to replace that status for political as well as economic reasons. Fiscal responsibility is the only thing that will retain it long term. Is the government making any great strides at being fiscally responsible?????
Ha. I have not seen it. Inflation of food, ammo, oil, and other necessities is already here, wages aren’t keeping up for those who are lucky enough to be working, so any necessity you buy today, will be money saved tomorrow.
For example I stocked up on peanut butter. Shortly thereafter, the price went up 125%. The stash lasted until the price went down a bit(still up 79%). Whether you want to call it prepping, or being proactive and smart with your money, its a good idea to spend some extra cash now on such things. As a plus you’ll be prepared for any Katrina like events.
Now this argument over silver and gold -should you buy it or not. First of all, you should have funds equivalent to 6 months expenses minimum before you consider setting up an investment portfolio.
An investment portfolio should be balanced. Stocks, Real Estate, Treasuries, and precious metals for example. I’d say put about 10% to 20% precious metals is a good idea for any portfolio.
Part of that 6 month to 12 month emergency fund should be stashed in cash, and coins. About 1 to 3 months maybe more of expenses stashed where you can get them if the banks go caput, or take a “holiday”.
Right now, JMHO we are going 90 miles an hour down a deadend road. It ends in currency collapse, and the dollar is replaced as the world’s reserve currency. It’s not too late to stop it, but government is not trying, because it’s a political hot potato to git er done. Maybe we’ll stumble around and survive. All the new oil tech could be used, and lead to a new era of prosperity.
Well, you get my drift. We aren’t in a pretty situation, and every one needs to figure out what’s the worst that could happen to me and my country? Then prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Now, about those buckets: I have 15 5 gallon buckets. I have 4 4 gallon buckets. Then I have a bunch of buckets that laundry detergent comes in about 2 gallon size, and I just love them. As soon as I empty another one, I clean it out and fill it full of stuff that needs to be stored. They are stacked in my basement it the closet where the holding tank and water heater are. I have plenty of room for more.
All my medicine stuff is located on 3 2 foot shelves in a hallway next to the bathroom, and the rest is under the bathroom sink and bathroom medicine cabinet. I go through it about twice and year and straighten it up, so things are easy to find.
For all of our storage items, when we take a package out we write it on a list that hangs on the refrigerator. All items are replaced as they come on sale, and at least before it is totally used up. Usually, we buy a replacement item and an extra for the pantry. That way the stash continues to grow.
It ain’t a perfect system or solution, and we don’t have all that we should have yet, but it’s better that many, and we are thankful for what we have been able to do.
Speaking of buckets, I just saw gamma lids at Winco! For $6.48, about $2.50 cheaper than I paid for them at Emergency Essentials years ago. They even had several different colors.
I think this prepping thing is spreading, if we can purchase supplies in regular stores now. You can count on the MSM to just ignore it, of course. When they aren’t trying to belittle us.
I've said it before, that once a hurricane goes through Houston, people are demanding water and food within an hour. I had a working portable battery TV after Ike went through, and couldn't believe my eyes that people were having fits for water immediately. The water was contaminated and they had not stored one cup or bottle of their good water before it came through. If we have an extended emergency, those people are going to die for sure.
So, if stores had storage food available here, I doubt enough would buy it to make it worth while for the store to have it.
LOL. I know the feeling. I too am not really trying to make money off the silver eagles, and other coins. Just a stash to keep.
I figure that if inflation hits, my house payment will be the same, but the property tax could become unaffordable, so I have several years worth equivalent to taxes stashed that should rise with the inflation.
When I was a kid, by maternal grandpa used to give me a big nickel(silver dollar) whenever I visited. Mom always kept them for me until I would decide what to spend it on. Then she would pay for it with a bill.
I asked one time why they all wanted to keep those coins, and they told me it was because they were afraid that our money might not be worth any thing some day. Supposedly they had a bunch of them hidden under the floorboards of the house.
I believe that Real Estate acquired during this recent downturn will absolutely be a good investment, but it’s not liquid, still with a good location, I wouldn’t hesitate.
I would not invest in bonds at this time, because interest rates are too low, and more likely than not to go up. I keep enough in Treasuries to pay off the Home Equity loan plus a little extra. Even Treasuries make me nervous these days.
Remember the first few days of 2008 market crash? Money was being drained from Treasuries, and the accounts were showing a negative return, as the world thought it was just a USA problem; that was scary. Then when it became clear that the rest of the world had similar problems, the money all came back to the USA.
Since our currency is not backed by gold anymore, reputation is what keeps that money here for now. Usually, it is considered less risky to just invest in a mutual fund, but these days, I would buy stock in an individual company, before I’d put anymore in mutual funds.
I’d look for a company with a long history and see that they did well during prior periods of uncertainty, but even more important, they should also have zero short term debt and long term debt should be as close to zero as possible.
Then I’d want to see a big stash of liquied assets, and great cash flow. Good luck finding that! Last time, I found one it was 6 years ago and it was the only one I found that fit that criteria. The stock doubled within 6 months, and I sold a little more than half of it to get back my original investment plus and let the rest ride.
One thing I didn’t mention, paying extra on any debt that has a high interest rate is a sure thing. If your interest rate is 12%, that is a for sure 12% rate of return kinda on your money for example.
Our issue is that we are retired, and living on pensions and social security. Hubby works part time and I babysit. Our hobby is gardeing and becoming more self sufficient - going back to our roots and homesteading a little. We’ll be ok as long as pensions checks keep coming, or at least if we can make the house payment and real estate taxes I think.
“My question would be, not WILL it happen here in the USSA, but CAN it happen?”
It sure can. Keep in mind that the value of a currency is in people’s willingness to accept it. The value of our currency is largely determined outside of the US; petrodollars and the use as a reserve/exchange currency. I don’t see the petrodollar thing changing that much very soon; the US is now a fairly big exporter of oil. But then again, other countries are beginning to exchange oil for gold or other currencies. The reserve currency though isn’t looking so hot for the US. Watch the numerous bilateral agreements China is executing to use their currency rather than the USD.
While a sudden, surprise hyperinflation is possible, I see the slide followed by a sudden drop as more likely. In any case, good luck in timing it. Diversification out of the dollar and into PMs would seem to be a wise move right now. You don’t have to and shouldn’t bet the farm, but I also think that the writing is on the wall for the dollar in the long term.
I think that relative to silver, gold is overpriced.
Keep in mind that PMs are what you should buy AFTER you have a long term supply of food, ammo, water, and other essentials taken care of. While both are important, preserving you and your families life is more important than preserving your wealth.
The advantage that the doom and gloom types have is that some day, one of their “end of the world” prophecies will come true.
It might be 100,000 years from now, but they will be shown to have been right.
While silver is below $20.00/ounce, I may buy a few cartwheels or eagles.
Speaking of food & essentials, what about this “Food Insurance” I hear hyped on talk radio? Seems anyone with sense can put together a stash of nonperishable items.
Never heard of it. If you don’t possess it and can’t protect it, you don’t own it.
So True, and I usually just shrug it off, but this has truly been the scariest economic situation in my lifetime, and the government seems determined to continue to spend like druken sailors.
We know that can’t go on forever.
I think that it is more likely to get your money back from social security if you start drawing it at 62, though each person’s situation differs. If you start drawing at age 62, you will draw benefits for 5 years-it takes a while to catch up when you delay, and many people won’t live that long.
I took my pension in lump sum and rolled it over to an IRA, I haven’t drawn anything on it, and won’t until I have to. It’s in an annuity that is earning 6% annually for the purpose of annutization.
Hubby was a school teacher in a rural district. My concern is that the government is so irresponsible, that I don’t know what is going to happen with social security or his pension.
The school system retirement is in pretty good shape, and is funded to what the actuarial requirements are. However the state government workers are underfunded, and they are always trying to get the teacher’s fund lumped in with theirs, so it won’t look so bad.
We also have people trying to change it from a defined benefit plan to a 401k type plan, which means no security or meaningful planning for retirement current and future retirees. Makes no sense; articles, I have read state that we are one of the few states that doesn’t have the backing of the state to guarantee the pension.
The Federal government has overpromised, and they will no doubt be forced to under deliver at some point. With only 8 years left on the mortgage, I am hoping that if we do have a currency collapse, it’ll be far enough in the future, that the emergency cash, and pension money can pay off the balance at that point.
Well, I had to retire to find time to do enough of it to make a difference.LOL.
“We know that cant go on forever.”
Yes, but it can go on for a long, long, time. So long as someone is willing to use our currency and purchase government debt, the ponzi will continue.
If it just lasts for about 6 to 8 more years, the mortgage will be paid, and chances for survival for this family just went up a lot.
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