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The problem here is that when you go from 90% opposition 30 years ago to 75% opposition 15 years ago to a (possible) slight majority in favor today, it is ludicrous to pretend that a decades-long trend will suddenly reverse itself for no particular reason.

A much more likely scenario is 75% in favor by 2030 and 90% in favor by 2045.

I’ll always be one of the minority against, but that’s no way to maintain a political program in a democracy.

Agreed - the article obscures the real issue, which is not that gay marriage activists have started to win elections on the subject (which is bad enough), but that the overall polling trends are startling and not in our favor.

I don't see how we turn this around, when a state like California goes from 60% opposing gay marriage to 60% in favor in just thirteen years. Our arguments have failed, and we aren't coming up with new ones. So the nationwide march continues into a full gallop.

What reason do we have to believe that this tide can be turned? I'd love to hear one, but nobody's put forth any serious suggestion that it might be possible.

Quite right.

I fell for this during the last election, when I was dumb enough to listen to the pundits claiming the conservative and GOP vote was greatly undersampled. Then we had the election and it turns out the average of all the polls was pretty much on the money.

The world is what it is, not what you or I wish it was.