Why Romney Will Win The Popular Vote: A Statistical Analysis

...In 2008, Barack Obama won the popular vote with a total of 69,456,897 votes. John McCain received a total of 59,934,814. In case you cannot instantly do complex math in your head, Obama won 7.2% more total votes than McCain (52.9% versus 45.7%).

Compare that with a poll that Rasmussen released in early November of 2008. According to the poll, 33.8% percent of people saw themselves as Republicans, 41.4% as Democrats, and 24.7% as non-affiliated. The difference was Democrats with a plus 7.6% advantage...

In November of 2010, Republicans made huge gains in the House and some in the Senate. According to Rasmussen, in November of 2010, 36.0% of Americans saw themselves as Republicans and 34.7% as Democrats. That's a 1.3% advantage for Republicans.

But you are probably wondering what the current party affiliation is. Well, if you support Mr. Romney, I have good news. According to a Rasmussen poll released on October 31, 39.1% of Americans see themselves as Republicans, 33.3% as Democrats, and 27.5% as unaffiliated.

Does that mean that Romney will win by almost 6%? Probably not. Does that show that it is extremely likely that Mr. Romney will win the popular vote? Yes.

Here's another reason why I think Romney will win today.

Got a phone call from a friend of mine this AM at work. Now, she leans liberal/left on many issues, somewhat right on others. She was literally on her way to her polling place and was deciding who to vote for right then. She asked me three questions. Now, I'll tell you the second and third questions first.

Her second question was "Will Romney take away a woman's right to choose?" I said no. As much as conservatives would like to protect the lives of the unborn, I honestly don't see that changing anytime soon, regardless of who is President. Besides, as much as any one person may want to change that, the President can't unilaterally decide that. Even though hussein has been acting an awful lot like a dictator.

Her third question was "Will Romney make it illegal for gays to marry?" I said I doubted it. Same-sex marriage has been put before the States, who have rejected it 0 for 33. I told her I think the government needs to back out of that question entirely. Legal protections can be a government issue with civil unions. Marriage should be a religious/Church question. She seemed satisfied with that.

Now, her first question was simply "If he's elected, will Romney get rid of obamacare?" I said yes. He stated it firmly and unequivocally in the debates and on the campaign trail. He'll have a friendly House and probably a friendly Senate. I believe he knows he'll have to get rid of it to spur any kind of economic recovery.

Now this is why I think Romney will win. She is the bread and butter of the MSM/liberal/democrats. She is not particularly political, watches MSM news, and is generally not well informed on issues nor does she dig for her own information. Like so many relatively shallow liberals, some of her primary concerns are issues that I personally put well down the list of priorities for my federal government. (abortion is reasonably important, gay marriage wouldn't make my top 100 issues) In other words, she's generally fairly easily manipulated by them.

Yet her first question was about obamacare, and framed as "is there a good reason here to vote for Romney" once she had her head wrapped around that, her next two questions were just confirmation that there wasn't a good reason not to vote for Mitt. With hussein losing these kind of liberals/independents...

I think it is going to turn out that obamacare is the albatross around the neck of the democrats that leads to their losing both houses of Congress and the Executive branch. obamacare is now seen as nothing but negatives. The rising costs and taxes in it, even before fully implemented and realized are hurting the economy. Fear of it is holding down businesses. Fear of what else the socialist democrats may pull is paralyzing business. People are not stupid, they see it happening. obamacare single handed (plus my 10 min phone conversation) gave Mitt another vote in a swing state. I'm sure my friend is not alone, she's representative of tens of thousands...

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.