How this question is answered is in fact the entire game today.
We shall see.
From your post to G_d’s inbox... :)
Let’s do the Rasmussen math:
PartyID = R+5.8
Turnout Model = D+2 (could be D+4 but I don’t think so)
Total differential 7.8
Say what? There is no, I repeat no possible explanation for this. Raz is just ignoring the fact that more people call them themselves Republicans than at any time in the history of Rasmussen polling.
And that history includes a unexpected and inexplicable bias that understates GOP turnout and overstates Dem turnout. One would think he would learn from his past mistakes. Not so apparently.
STORM HEAVEN WITH PRAYERS.
Please!!Please!! Please let this be true!!
Please remember that Rasmussen does not use his polling survey results for party affiliation as his base formula. He uses his historic understanding of party affiliation for his base formula. He believes that historic party ID does not easily change. Many freepers have pegged Rasmussen’s basic party ID formula as Dem+3 or Dem+5, depending on who you’re talking to.
Rasmussen then adjusts his basic formula by an internal formula known to him and his organization. I assume that’s where his party affiliation survey gets used, but I can’t prove that. Nor do I know the other things he uses in that internal adjustment.
Just for discussion, though, let’s assume he uses Dem+3 as his basic formula and adjusts it point for point with his party id survey of 5.8%. That would mean that he’s actually saying the electorate is roughly R+2.8 (-3+5.8).
Yesterday, I think I heard on Fox that Ras is using R+1. That could mean the other factors in his formula subtract from the Repub advantage or it could mean that his base formula is D+5 as some have said. That would get us to R+.8, and that would round up to R+1.
I have absolutely no way of proving this; it’s just my opinion.
how long has Ras known this? you know, you can’t trust anyone in polling. 57-43...Romney
How will Rasmussen spin this on Fox tonight as the returns show a healthy Romney win?
If more Republicans vote than Democrats, easy Romney victory by around 6%.