Posted on 11/05/2012 7:06:19 PM PST by Starman417
2012 will not be a reprise of 2000. Although Barack Obama is building an army / phalanx of lawyers to try and redirect the election to the courts with the hope that the justices will lean against throwing out a sitting president, it won’t happen. 2000 only happened because the election was so close, with a mere half percent difference between the candidates. In 2012 that will not be a problem. Of course that was all about electoral votes, not popular, but the two usually go hand in hand. Michael Barone does a good job of looking at the electoral landscape. I’m looking at the popular vote.
Mitt Romney will not only beat Barack Obama, he will do it by double digits. Why, when the polls are so close will the election itself be so lopsided? Here are four reasons.
1. Race: I won’t suggest that it doesn’t have anything to do with race. It does, but not in the way you might think. In 2008, 95% of blacks voted for Barack Obama while 4% voted for John McCain. At the same time, 43% of white voters cast their ballot for Obama, a higher percentage than voted for Bill Clinton in 1992. So it’s obviously not that white people won’t vote for a black man. No, race won’t matter in the election, but it does in the misdirection provided by the polls. It’s called the Wilder effect or the Bradley effect. Named after former Virginia governor Doug Wilder and the late Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, both of whom won election with a lower proportion of the white vote than had been predicted.
This year that effect will be dramatic. Not because whites won’t vote for a black man, but rather because after spending the last four years watching every disagreement with the President labeled as racist, many whites will not tell pollsters they are voting against Barack Obama for fear of being labeled a racist. The result will be that the white vote against the President will likely be 5-8% higher than is reflected in the polls. Good for 3% in the general election.
2. Enthusiasm: The overwhelming majority of polls that have been run over this election cycle have greatly oversampled Democrats while simultaneously undersampling Republicans. This is particularly important in polls in electoral swing states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida. Pollsters have continuously utilized a 2008 voter turnout model to suggest what the 2012 turnout will look like. That makes no sense whatsoever. In 2008 Democrats were frothing with their hate for George Bush and were excited about the possibility of electing the first black president. They desperately wanted a change from the status quo (i.e. McCain = Bush) and were highly enthusiastic about voting for Barack Obama. You could have put 10 ft barbed wire fences around the polling stations and Democrats would have found a way to vote. Today, after four years of abject failure on virtually every level, Democrats still want to vote for Obama, but the passion is gone. They may still support him, but the willingness to climb a mountain or wrestle a bear just to vote for him is gone.
Contrast that with the Republicans. In 2008 many of them were very unhappy with the GOP’s decidedly un-conservative, milquetoast candidate. As a result, while most wanted nothing to do with Barack Obama, many simply decided to sit the election out altogether. Today, after four years of failure and a steady march towards socialism, Republicans in general and conservatives in particular are the ones frothing, this time to depose a socialist king. They feel as if the country is on the line. Many, if not most, feel that the Republic can simply not survive another four years of Barack Obama. When people’s backs are against the wall, they fight far more passionately than they might otherwise. The result will be a GOP turnout that far exceeds what most pollsters are suggesting. This will be good for 4% at the polling place.
(excerpt) Read more at floppingaces.net...
Yes, I’m posting this a lot. The reason is that people seem to have AMNESIA about the Wisconsin Recall! We were told it was too close to call, and 49 minutes after the polls closed Walker was declared the winner 53-46.
The same thing is happening with these presidential polls.
Here is the video of MSNBC declaring the recall too close to call and then having to eat crow. Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pchwcD4IPzs
No he won’t. Obamas floor is 47. He’s at 48 in the polls on average. He may get to 49.5 which might be enough to win but thats worse case. More likely is Romney 50.5, Obama 49.0, weirdos 0.5.
That floor is a bit shaky in my opinion.. Dems aren’t nearly as energized to vote this go around.
The floor sits on joists that don’t pay federal income taxes. I don’t think it’s shaky at all. In fact I think Mitt was exactly right.
The floor sits on joists that don’t pay federal income taxes. I don’t think it’s shaky at all. In fact I think Mitt was exactly right.
bathhouse barry’s floor is 43%, not 47%.
Wanna bet? ;-]
The little girly man Barry is gonna’ go down like a frankfurter at an eating contest.
I don’t underestimate the power of the Dems’ recount. It is strong in them.
Well I’ve certainly had my optimism tamped down this evening....
Romney will win tomorrow, and fairly comfortably. But that “Bradley effect” is pure BS. How many of us clung desperately to that little fiction (and to those mythical “PUMAS”) to drag McLame’s sorry ass over the finish line in ‘08?
i’ve already bet my hair if it’s not a landslide. whaddaya want to bet? my 1st born?
I believe you’re right despite the nastiness of the democrat party.
54-46 is what I predict also.....BUT I’M ALWAYS WRONG!!!
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