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USA Today/Gallup Poll: Swing-State Voters Split 48-48 Between Obama, Romney [16 Point Gender Gap]
The Hill ^ | November 04, 2012 | Meghashyam Mali

Posted on 11/04/2012 8:57:53 PM PST by Steelfish

Poll: Swing-State Voters Split 48-48 Between Obama, Romney By Meghashyam Mali - 11/04/12

Voters in swing states are evenly split between President Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney, according to a new poll from USA Today/Gallup.

The poll released late Sunday finds 48 percent of likely voters in the nation’s key battlegrounds backing Obama and 48 preferring Romney.

The numbers show a 4-point bounce for Obama from the last USA Today/Gallup Poll of Swing States in early October, taken days after a disappointing first debate for the president. Obama also leads by 4-points among registered voters at 50 to 46, which the poll notes is the largest margin and the first time either candidate has hit 50 percent since Romney clinched the GOP nomination in the spring.

The poll shows Obama regaining a strong edge with female voters who had drifted towards Romney after the first debate, boosting the GOP challenger in national polls. Obama now leads among women by 16 points, while Romney holds a 10-point advantage among men.

RELATED ARTICLES Poll: Romney up 6 in Florida But Romney leads among independent voters by 1-point and holds an edge on the economy, which voters say is the most important issue this election.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 11/04/2012 8:57:58 PM PST by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish

Sorry.
It should say 6 point gender gap and 16 points advantage for Obama with women.


2 posted on 11/04/2012 8:59:26 PM PST by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

MUST SELL PAPERS

MUST SELL PAPERS

MUST SELL PAPERS
MUST SELL PAPERS

MUST SELL PAPERS

MUST SELL PAPERS

MUST SELL PAPERS


3 posted on 11/04/2012 9:00:08 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Wait, so now Gallup is not to be trusted also?


4 posted on 11/04/2012 9:01:21 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: Steelfish
Damn whale NJ Gov Christie = the October surprise. We will still defeat Obama Tuesday though as this is Gallup and they are trying to help Obama
5 posted on 11/04/2012 9:04:24 PM PST by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ...)
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To: Steelfish

It appears that hurricanes are DemocRATS. A four point bounce with Sandy? People are morons.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 9:04:30 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer
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To: Steelfish

This is a poll created by left wing UsaToday by Gallup .
It’s not a Gallup poll !
It’s that left wing rags poll criteria not Gallups !
Trust me my mothers family lives down the street in Fl from the left wing crack pot founder !
A tedious bore and obnoxious lefty .


7 posted on 11/04/2012 9:05:09 PM PST by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

It’s the media coverage of the hurricane and Gov Christie the traitor.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 9:05:15 PM PST by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ...)
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To: Steelfish

Don’t see the internals. Do we know sample sizes?


9 posted on 11/04/2012 9:05:23 PM PST by Frapster (There you go again....)
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To: Steelfish

The way the left has demonized anti-O voters as racists and worse, who would want to admit that they would not vote Dem?

It is certain that this only tilts the polls to the left, and I think by a lot more than many believe.


10 posted on 11/04/2012 9:06:16 PM PST by granite (The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left - Ecclest 10:2)
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To: CatOwner; Steelfish

Steelfish,

post was not directed at you.

Cat Owner,

No polling agency that sells their poll results to newspapers, or news sites, should be trusted.

The polling companies you have never heard of are those that are hired by the candidates to see where they are, where they need to be, and what to do next. They make the real money.

The polls we see are those used to generate sale of newspapers or hits to websites.


11 posted on 11/04/2012 9:06:20 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: CatOwner

Should you be bashing the bush family on some other website !


12 posted on 11/04/2012 9:06:37 PM PST by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: CatOwner

You are loving this, aren’t you?


13 posted on 11/04/2012 9:06:49 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Steelfish

Chris Christie sold the country down the river because Obammy brought him some cash.

Women apparently ate it up and they now loves them some Obama again.


14 posted on 11/04/2012 9:09:31 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Frapster

D 37, R 29, I 34. And it’s Registered Voters.
D +8 in swing states? I don’t think so. BTW, they
count New Mexico as a swing state.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 9:10:03 PM PST by rfp1234
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To: ncalburt
"Should you be bashing the bush family on some other website !"

Find a post here on FR where I bashed Bush (either) and indicated I disliked the main. I *dare* you. Please do it. I want you to waste as much of your time as possible.

16 posted on 11/04/2012 9:10:03 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: comebacknewt

Not really. I see “Gallup” and wondered about the accuracy of the information. Seems I am not the only one. Have anything constructive to add about the poll?


17 posted on 11/04/2012 9:11:31 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

Wasn’t it Gallup that had Jimmy Carter up by 4 points in 1980?


18 posted on 11/04/2012 9:11:35 PM PST by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
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To: Jane Long

Gallup’s final election poll for 1980 had it Reagan 47-44.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 9:12:31 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: rfp1234; CatOwner
D 37, R 29, I 34. And it’s Registered Voters. D +8 in swing states? I don’t think so. BTW, they count New Mexico as a swing state.

LoL don't worry CatOwner, Obama is still toast in a few hours.

20 posted on 11/04/2012 9:13:24 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: CatOwner

Snark elsewhere !


21 posted on 11/04/2012 9:14:05 PM PST by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: Red Steel

Ah, good information. Yes, this does skew the results quite a bit. Just confused about Gallup’s involvement in this particular poll.


22 posted on 11/04/2012 9:14:32 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: ncalburt

I don’t get it...

We laugh at Algores crapscience and yet people here take every poll as if it were carved in stone by the Almighty.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 9:15:32 PM PST by bigbob
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To: ncalburt

Put up or shut up.


24 posted on 11/04/2012 9:15:48 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: rfp1234

Where’d you find the internals?


25 posted on 11/04/2012 9:19:00 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: CatOwner

Gallup in its poll does NOT adjust for party identification, according to what was written about it last week. As such, this poll is probably a gallup poll result massaged by USA Today’s party base and turnout concepts.

So, it is like the guy hiring a CPA and asking a simple math question to determine whom would be his CFO. The proper answer to the question was “what do you want the answer to be”. So, while these polls have some value, they are as valid as the overlay.

As far as the gender difference I believe that large difference takes place in decreasing numbers as the age brackets go up. I have not seen the degree of interest in the younger voters this time as I did in 08 so my suspicion is that large a difference is probably over sampled.


26 posted on 11/04/2012 9:22:40 PM PST by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: Steelfish
If it's all tied up for Romney (I don't think it is hence the biased oversampled Dem polls like this one) heading into an election then it's very good for us. The MSM is sooooooo corrupt and they're trying to create a narrative of a horse race for ratings and to dispirit conservatives. Ask yourself this why can't Obama get above 50%? Also ask yourself - If this race is truly tied up, who would you feel bettter being in this election, the guy who has been having 30,000 plus people at rallies in swing states or the guy who can barely fill a high school auditorium? Also Obama cannot get over 50% and undecideds break for guess who? The challenger.

FRiends don't freak out about this news, chances are the polls would have tightened up anyway even if Sandy or if Governor. Kristie Kreme hadn't whored himself out to Obama. They are creating fear porn and trying to dispirit you - don't fall for it.

27 posted on 11/04/2012 9:24:32 PM PST by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: Mouton

Thanks. I just find it interesting that Gallup would lend their name to something that could be improperly skewed or reported. Gotta make money, I guess.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 9:25:29 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: bigbob

Many posters do not understand that Gallup is a for profit polling firm Hired by USAToday to create a product they ( lefties at USA today) want and not Gallup !
The poll is product meant to sell more papers .
They could care less if its accurate and who will remember in one week ‘
The poll internals are a joke but people Just read headlined and particular this rag which is actually written on a
3 grade reading level ( I am serious).


29 posted on 11/04/2012 9:26:59 PM PST by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: Steelfish

Is this the final Gallup poll we have been waiting for?

I think not...the article linked to in “The Hill” says the poll was conducted Oct. 27-31, not over this weekend... What gives with the Nov. 3 release date?


30 posted on 11/04/2012 9:27:00 PM PST by nvskibum
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To: nvskibum

Correction—Nov. 4 release date of poll conducted Oct. 27-31 (according to The Hill linked article).


31 posted on 11/04/2012 9:29:27 PM PST by nvskibum
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To: Mouton

Good analogy. When I see someone using what the common person would take to be a scientific approach but actually just using it to justify his own predetermined conclusions, I call it ‘crapscience’. Algores global horsepuckey was the perfect example, and I think we’ve been seeing the same kind of nonsense in these polls for months. Any scientific or statistical credibility goes out the window when you read what we’ve read about how they massage the data. And in my opinion, said massaging is done for two reasons, ideological and financial. The pollsters can tell their clients what they want to hear for a long time, but as the day of truth approaches, they want to end up with a plausible excuse so they can stay in business.

These polls are not pure unbiased science. Polling is a business.


32 posted on 11/04/2012 9:36:30 PM PST by bigbob
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To: nvskibum

No, Gallup is due tomorrow (Monday)


33 posted on 11/04/2012 9:37:54 PM PST by Steelfish (ui)
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To: CatOwner

Wait, so now Gallup is not to be trusted also?

No USA can’t be trusted! Gallup won’t release their poll until tomorrow!!!


34 posted on 11/04/2012 9:41:11 PM PST by tallyhoe
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To: Steelfish

Oct. 27-31 USA TODAY/Gallup Swing State Poll of 1,183 registered voters, Margin of sampling error +/- 4 percentage points for all questions except voting intentions.
By: Kevin A. Kepple and Susan Page, USA TODAY


35 posted on 11/04/2012 9:43:12 PM PST by tallyhoe
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To: CatOwner

What can I say? It sucks.

Because of that, I have no desire to gloat about it.

I guess we’re just different that way.


36 posted on 11/04/2012 9:43:57 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: bigbob

I look at this election this way: the enthusiasm for his excellency is no where near where it was in 08, especially among the younger voters. Add in the black vote is also going to be down for him because of his homo stance. Obamacare is unpopular and should remove some more votes. Meanwhile, the turnout for Romney is far more enthusiastic than it was for McCain whom we pretty much knew was going to lose a month before the election...I don’t sense that feeling of doom this time. I keep hearing that billy boy Clinton is so popular, correct me if I am wrong, but I don’t recall him with monumental popular votes in either of his elections and if he were popular, Obama’s demeaning of Hitlery may detract from any support he gets from billy boy.

So, on balance I have a good feeling about this election, close call perhaps a win by ten EV overall. The thing I dread would be a loss to this pile of crap because if we cannot win this one, the country is lost for good and it will literally be every man for themselves if that gender gap becomes reality.


37 posted on 11/04/2012 9:48:03 PM PST by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: Steelfish

Another bad news post by Steelfish! You are on a (t)roll!


38 posted on 11/04/2012 9:48:34 PM PST by entropy12 (The radical socialist from Chicago and Acorn lawyer must be defeated! VOTE him out!!)
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To: ncalburt

Tied with registered voters = Romney +3


39 posted on 11/04/2012 9:48:50 PM PST by heights
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To: comebacknewt

I see “Gallup” on a poll, something many others would see, and wondered why this would invalidate the results. A few here graciously explained how Gallup works with respect to this particularly poll. A few others went for the personal attack. As you said, I guess we’re just different that way.


40 posted on 11/04/2012 9:50:54 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: entropy12

Go join the three proverbial monkeys if you want to seal yourself in an echo chamber especially if you are unable like the other posts to make constructive comments on the polls out there and the only polls you can handle are ones that favor RR.


41 posted on 11/04/2012 9:56:11 PM PST by Steelfish (ui)
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To: CatOwner

It’s very simple. Usa today saw Romney +3 with likey voters, and it tied with registered voters. They chose to go to press with the registered voters poll.


42 posted on 11/04/2012 9:56:38 PM PST by heights
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To: Steelfish
Can anybody tell me if wearing my new jersey will get me thrown out of the polling place?
43 posted on 11/04/2012 9:56:45 PM PST by NeverForgetBataan (I am become Barry... destroyer of wealth)
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To: NeverForgetBataan

How about a bag from Chick Fil A?


44 posted on 11/04/2012 9:58:37 PM PST by heights
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To: heights

oops... my HTML no worky worky


45 posted on 11/04/2012 9:59:31 PM PST by NeverForgetBataan (I am become Barry... destroyer of wealth)
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To: jwalsh07

I followed the link from Drudge, he has some polls in his left column.
It’s on Page 5 or 6 (out of 12) in the USA Today article.


46 posted on 11/04/2012 9:59:56 PM PST by rfp1234
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To: Steelfish

- with a 48% gender gap,
- a 96% + D,
-and fax in, phone in, voting and
- Rapture
“Obama is the projected winner.”

Nate Silver


47 posted on 11/04/2012 10:26:28 PM PST by NoLibZone (If the black experience is about being hated, I know more about it than Whoppi does I'm a Republican)
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To: CatOwner
This is not Gallup's normal poll. This is a weighted poll same as the rest bought and paid for by USA Today.

You really would be happier at DU.

48 posted on 11/05/2012 6:01:51 AM PST by Lady Heron
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To: Lady Heron

You obviously have not read all of my comments on this thread. Typical that some here on FR want their pristine little world with no questioning and no dissension. Sorry you feel that way.


49 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:02 AM PST by CatOwner
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