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More at the site, but Ali concludes that given traditional early vote leads in the Kasich election and in 2008, Zero isn't close to where he has to be.

But I would argue that the scenario is in fact better for us:

EVERYONE who runs these numbers assumes an even split of Ds voting for Obama and Rs voting for Romney. But as SoftwareEngineer has noted many times, if you only know one Democrat who has changed (and all of us do) that's a massive shift in numbers. So far---with one outlier---most polls show Rs going for Romney in the 89-92 range, and Ds going for Obama in the 87 range. That is significant.

The second factor is that Ohio is, for Republicans, an "election day turnout day." Yes, we are performing much better in early voting, but by all reports from walkers, these are NOT the "election day" Republicans---the base---but the so called "low propensity voters." In other words, it's entirely possible that R turnout in 2012 will significantly exceed 08 and more than likely look like 2010 (or the Gallup +R model, at least).

All of that leads me to stand by my prediction of 4% Romney win in OH.

PS. A high level GOP guy who has been here forever said on Twitter yesterday that Romney wins, period. This echoes what a GOP national insider told Hugh Hewitt yesterday---that Romney in fact already has a lead in early voting. (This would confirm my estimates and suggest that Ali's are low for the reasons I stated). Guess we'll see.