You have to remember that New York was ludicrously overrepresented by Democrats in districts that were historically Republican. At one point, the GOP was down to TWO out of 29 seats by mid-2009 (whereas we had 10 out of 29 going into the 2004 election, with the Dems gradually picking off some weak incumbents and open seats, dropping to 9, and then 6 with 2006 and 3 in 2008, and then 2 when Zero appointed one to a subcabinet post and the Dems won the special in an upset).
The GOP reclaimed 6 lost seats in November 2010, going back up to 8, and came close in 4 other seats (though we later lost Chris Lee’s seat when he resigned and the Dems again scored an unexpected upset in the special for what was the longest-held GOP seat left in the state — but we compensated for that by capturing the Weiner seat).
Ultimately, we are competitive for at least 14-15 of those 29 districts (and have held those at least at some point in the past two decades). With the redistricting and loss of two seats (to 27), there still is no reason we can’t take at least 10-12 of those with good and well-funded candidates (and at least 13 of the 27 are competitive for us).
As for New Jersey, there’s no reason we shouldn’t have a tie of 6-6 come November (the GOP already has 6, and with redistricting, the Dems forced to have Pascrell & Rothman run against each other, they’ve already lost a seat while we hold all of ours).
New York is one thing, but I really don’t get why NJ isn’t staunchly republican. Our state motto is Liberty & Prosperity!
Still, we did get lucky with that re-districting. And, as seems plain, incumbents are ENTRENCHED here, so I guess we can count on holding what we have.
I’m very glad Christie didn’t become the veep candidate, I hope he runs for re-election and wins and I hope he can do better in building up the party state wide. He hasn’t done much so far - I don’t know why that is, but, perhaps things will improve as time goes by.