It’s not simply optimism, its mathematics.
Blue Dog Democrats are lost to Obama, as are Catholics.. Obviously there is overlap in those 2 groups, but you don’t lose catholics 3-1, or afford to lose large numbers of Blue Dogs and expect to carry the rust belt.
Lets not even get into the fact he’s down 10-15 points among independents.
This election isn’t going to be close folks.. Fight tooth and nail like it is, but the math doesn’t add up.
More than one poll has shown nearly 20% of DEMOCRATS are going to vote for Romney! You can’t win elections when you are losing 1/5 of your base. You don’t win elections by campaigning on class warfare! At least not a national election... That’s what leftists to gin up their base, they don’t win the general by doing it... yet that’s still what Obama is doing and its NEARLY SEPTEMBER!
All Romney has to do tonight, is prove to the overwhelming majority of American’s that he’s not some extremist nutball, which while Romney is many things, that he is not. Obama and his ilk are trying their best to paint him as one, but it won’t work. Just come out and show he’s a not some boogie man, and he will do that fine, and once he does that, and as the bulk of the non political junkie population gets to see and know him, his polling numbers will swell.
I truly think Obama has a popular vote MAX of 42-43%, and very likely could wind up sub 40 on election day, a feat no sitting president has managed during re-election since Hoover in 1932.
I fully expect independents to break somewhere around 2-1 for Romney on election day. Obama doesn’t have any prayer for re-election. This “its a squeaker” is what you get when people who have lived in Washington far too long, and have no idea whats going on on the ground, try to analyze the situation.
Rust Belt is DEAD to Obama, no way in hell he’s going to get, IA, IN, WI or OH... PA and MI are battleground and if Romney brings the fight to those states I fully expect Obama to lose them as well. MN and IL are the only remotely safe states for Obama in the rust belt. The south is ABSOLUTELY lost for Obama, he has no chance at FL or NC.. VA is the only possibility and that’s only if the DC contingent in N VA can overwhelm the rest of the state, and given the motivation and excitement of the anti-Obama crowds I don’t think it will happen.
EC may not reflect how badly Obama will lose the popular vote, but it is going to be a routing, and its going to go up and down the ballot, not just the White House Race.
Remember, most democratic senators up for election this term haven’t faced the electorate since voting for Obamacare... you think they won’t pay a price for that?
I’m really sick and tired of your superficial responses that are nothing more than uninformed opinion, without any supporting data or reasoning!
MAJOR SARCASM ALERT.
Thanks for your thoughts. What did you think of Romney’s speech, and how is it being perceived/received?