This is what Clifton Daniel would prefer happened:
http://www.webwizpro.com/1945InvasionofJapan.html
TENS OF MILLIONS of Japanese dead.
But at least they would have died the traditional way, by fire, famine and disease. That would have been morally far superior.
Japan was isolated.
Italy was under Allied control.
Germany was under Allied control.
The Japanese had been kicked out of most of Asia and were concentrated on their home island.
By July of 1945, their naval and air power was inconsequential.
The Russians were mobilizing eastward towards Japan.
They were surrounded, isolated, no secure way to get supplies in or shipments out.
It really was over.
To be honest, I think we could have waited them out with occasional bombing raids on any remaining factories and military installations.
At this point, they were utterly defenseless from air raids. The planes that dropped the atomic bombs met no opposition at all.
An invasion likely would have been unnecessary.
I don’t know why the a-bombs were used, really. Perhaps it was to end it before the Russians could get involved and divide Japan the way they did Europe.
We may never know for certain.