Sadly for Obama & Gillibrand to lose in 2012 would require a New York Democrat Election Disaster of 2012.
D’Amato, and even the true conservative Buckley, won U.S. Senate seats in NYS, & Bob Turner, one of the GOP candidates, who will run in the primaries (as you know), won the House seat in a district in NY where no Republican won since 1923.
Yes, Republicans winning is against the odds, but Obama is such horrible president, imo, many Dems will stay home on Election Day which gives us a decent shot.
Last time I read the polls even Romney went up 10 points, but I haven’t checked the polls lately.