Appetiser cost of Greek exit is €155bn for Germany, France: trillions for meat course

The Telegraph ^ | 5/15/2012 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

[bruinbirdman]

The Germans must abolish themselves

Eric Dor's team at the IESEG School of Management in Lille has put together a table on the direct costs to Germany and France if Greece is pushed out of the euro.

These assume that relations between Europe and Greece break down in acrimony, with a full-fledged "stuff-you" default on euro liabilities. It assumes a drachma devaluation of 50pc.

They conclude:

The total losses could reach €66.4bn for France and €89.8bn for Germany. These are upper bounds, but even in the case of a partial default, the losses would be huge.

Assuming that the new national currency would depreciate by 50 per cent against the euro, which is realistic, the losses for French banks would reach €19.8bn. They would reach €4.5bn for German banks.

Sounds about right.

I doubt that the US, China, and the world powers would sit back if the EU tried to "teach Greeks a lesson" by making life Hell for them.

There would be massive global pressure on Europe to handle the exit in a grown-up fashion, with backstops in place to stabilize Greece. The IMF would step in.

The German finance ministry is already drawing up such plans, and quite correctly so (unfortunately roping in the British too to spread the losses, which is a thorny subject).

Needless to say, the real danger is contagion to Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, and the deadly linkages between €15 trillion in public and private debt in these countries and the €27 trillion European banking nexus.

This is where any further errors by EU leaders could take the world into full depression.

This nonsense can of course be stopped in ten minutes if the EU:

1) announces that it will equip itself with real central bank

[Lurker]

Here it comes. The ride is going to get really, really exciting in the next days and weeks my friend.

[bruinbirdman]

"The ride is going to get really, really exciting "

Although the EU meltdown has been a story for 2 1/2 years now, the can seems to have been kicked to the end of the cul-de-sac.

Today the market reacted negatively to two separate EU news events about 5 hrs apart.

yitbos

[Uncle Slayton]

The lesson is not to lend billions of dollars to deadbeats.

[shove_it]

All Germany needs to do is exit the EU and pick up all those countries they lost 67 years ago at bargain basement prices.

[mamelukesabre]

uhhh......who are the NON-DEADBEATS in this? Name them.

[B212]

There is small point that all should dwell on....it goes like this: Spain gets hit with a bank run, and Spain operates the main Banks in Mexico....a Mexican bank run, would result in chaos down there, and a border surge of illegals...shall we say refugees...

[Chode]

aside from Germany, that'd prolly the Nordic Countries...

[familyop]

After so much foreign currency is stuffed into US treasuries in these globalist merchant propaganda campaigns, our U.S. dollar will probably be devalued much more after the end of our own default process.

[mamelukesabre]

I don’t think so. Maybe ONLY norway. Germany is a deadbeat. They’re just less of a deadbeat than most everyone else.

[Chode]

i guess i don't understand your definition of deadbeat then since Germany seems to be contributing most of the money for the bailouts... liberal/socialist sure, but from what i've seen, those that work, work hard

and i wasn't aware the Nordic's were in bad financial shape debt wise