Posted on 01/30/2012 11:49:28 AM PST by parksstp
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldDFPWGZfWEZwbEctMldPdGxtRjloNWc
3 Primary Models were run for County by County Analysis. One Model references Maximum Projected Turnout, One Model with Middle Projected Turnout, and One with Flat Turnout from 2008.
Assumptions (based on recentl polling and lessons learned from SC/NH/IA Results)
Romney - Receives 2008 Vote Total, 50% Rudy vote by virute of lead among Hispanics/Elderly, and 35% of McCain vote. Receives only 1% of Projected increase in Turnout.
Paul - Receives 2008 Vote Total, 50% Rudy vote by virtue these most mentally unstable voters (kidding, but still closed GOP Primary, so not as many crazies as other states). Receives 7% of Projected increase in Turnout as in SC.
Santorum - 60% 08 Huckabee Vote Total, 5% McCain Vote Total. Receives 17% of Projected Increase in Turnout as in SC.
Gingrich - All remaining votes, including 40% 08 Huckabee vote, 60% 08 McCain vote, and 75% of Projected Increase in Turnout as in SC.
As a result, Gingrich's final result is heavily dependent on turnout, but assuming Hispanics and Seniors do not change allegiances in the next 36 hours, he will still fall short of Romney.
In projecting turnout, a 1% increase in voter turnout for every 4% increase in total county voter population, as this is what transpired in SC. Following this model for FL reflects 433,526 new voters. This is probably the maximum projected turnout of 2,351,876 voters.
Results for the Maximum Voter Turnout Model (A)
Romney (1,014,482/43.14%)
Gingrich (841,223/35.77%)
Santorum (268,177/11.40%)
Paul (227,994/9.69%)
In the event of a FLAT turnout, where ZERO voters increase from the 1,918,350 voters from 2008, the results produce the following Model (B)
Romney (1,010,147/52.66%)
Gingrich (516,078/26.90%)
Paul (197,647/10.30%)
Santorum (194,478/10.14%)
At these two extremes, a middle result can be produced known as Model (C)
Romney (1,012,315/47.41%)
Gingrich (678,650/31.79%)
Santorum (231,328/10.83%)
Paul (212,820/9.97%)
Total: 2,135,113
Current Weekend Polling Suggests that Model (C) is probably the most accurate, which the current late "surge" that Gingrich is having will push the results in the direction of Model (A).
Still, in all scenarios, unless Seniors and Hispanics change their minds, Romney is pretty much assured to get just over 1 million votes. Santorum and Paul's totals are around 9-11% and depending on how turnout is, the lower the turnout, the better chance Paul has of placing 3rd. The biggest question mark is Gingrich, because his numbers are most tied to turnout. Still, even in the best case scenario, Newt appears to fall 7 or 8 points short.
Hispanics and Seniors are the dominant force in FL, which you can tell is a lot more moderate/liberal than thought. Under Models (B) and (C) with low-mid turnout, Santorum's vote total in it's entirety combined with Gingrich's vote total would not be enough to overtake Romney's projected vote share. Only in Model (A) with maximum projected turnout does it appear to be a factor. If Santorum were not in the race, under Model A, Gingrich would need a little over 82% of Santorum's support, assuming Romney got 18% of it to edge Romney 1,062,000 to 1,061,000 in a three-way race with Ron Paul.
The latest polls show Gingrich with a wide lead among hispanic Republicans.
Hence the disclaimer “unless”
I saw that Insider Advantage poll. Strange that Ron Paul would get 23% of the Hispanic vote, let alone Cuban-American vote for wanting to open up more to Cuba and the Castro machine. That doesn’t make sense.
Gingrich appears to be doing well among Hispanics outside Miami-Dade, but Romney still leads the Cuban-American group.
Newt narrows the gap if Santorum drops out.
Santorum has to throw in behind Gingrich. Despite the fact that I believe Santorum is more conservative, and that he can draw a sharper distinction in the general, people are just not being drawn to him.
Gingrich can give a speech and is quick on his feet in a debate and people are wanting to get on board with him, despite whatever baggage (and the biggest one I view which has not been vetted and repudiated yet is Newt’s ties to Alvin Toffler, whom Newt called his mentor).
That aside, Newt has very strong skills and his “A food stamp or a paycheck,” and his “Alynsky model versus the Reagan model,” along with his own involvement in balancing the federal budget and lowering taxes are clear disticntions that he can draw easily that people will understand and see instinctively, particularly the food stamp President (Obama) versus the Paycheck Ppresident (Newt).
So...I believe Santorum should recognize the handwriting and get behind Newt if they want to put the skids to Romney in Florida.
Romney has several states coming where he will do well (Nevada, Maine, Michigan, Arizona) before another strong chance comes to unhinge him...and at that point he will be amassing a sizable lead. So here in Florida tomorrow something dramatic needs to give way so Newt can apporach or overtake Romeny.
“Hispanics” not a few generations removed in this country are VERY socialist. “Community” and all that.
This is, in general, a very bizarre primary season. I personally have concerns about bias sneaking into polls in the first-of-the-season closed primary. I have wondered if this highly charged and highly-publicized primary season could introduce selection bias, as people respond they are likely to vote in the primary when they in fact are not registered as Republicans. This effect, if it exists (and we’ll see tomorrow) would significantly benefit Romney.
Cubans in Florida are 90% Republican and voting for Newt
Santorum should tell his supporters to vote for Newt in FL. He should say he’s ok if he only gets 3%, he’ll stay in the race but we need Newt to win in FL or they’ll both go down.
Newt within 4.6% of Romney he is surging, Latest poll from Florida
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2840050/posts
You heard it here first.
That’s if nothing changes in the next 30 hours or so.
I see “Your” bold which I assume is your skepticism. That’s fine.
In South Carolina, I was off by only 6,000 votes on Romney raw vote total and 6,000 on Paul. Gingrich and Santorum were much higher due to an increase in turnout from 495,000 to almost 600,000 voters. Had turnout held at 495,000 I would have been right with their totals also.
In New Hampshire, I only projected for Hillsborough and Belknap County, but had Newt, Santorum, and Perry’s numbers down to within just a handful of votes (i,e. <100). Turnout was nowhere near what was predicted which is why Romney only got to 40% instead of 45%. Also, I found a correalation between Paul and Huntsman voters where I was off in assigning votes to Huntsman that actually went to Paul.
In IA, turnout wasn’t as high as projected. I said 130,000, it was only 122,000, but I had Romney’s final tally of 24.9% to within two tenths of a percentage. Santorum moved into Gingrich’s spot and got near the same amount (I ran the IA too early in December and never re-ran it).
Turnout will be key. The higher the vote total, the closer Gingrich gets to Romney, because Romney gets virtually no share of “new voters”.
If I’m reading your article correctly, you are assigning Romney all of his 2008 votes. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but as I remember 2008, lots of conservatives were encouraged to vote for Romney as the “conservative alternative” to McCain. Isn’t it possible that many of those conservative votes may go elsewhere in 2012, as Romney is seen as the least conservative of the remaining candidates?
Not that so much as making sure I had a handle on the source of the prediction.
-- That's if nothing changes in the next 30 hours or so. --
You only mentioned turnout as a specific variable. Obviously, if the outcome is not "close" to your prediction, something "changed."
I hope these are as good as the “smart” people’s climate models. :)
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