Rick Perry versus Conventional Wisdom

The first thing conservative Republicans need to do is stop paying attention to polls pitting potential Republican candidates against President Obama. That campaign is months in the future and every single one of those polls are meaningless right now.

Most of the Republican candidates in this primary are strong in their own right, even that lunatic Ron Paul and probably every one of them is capable of defeating Obama, even if the unemployment rate is mathematically massaged below 8%.

Michelle Bachman has the requisite experience to deal with Congress in the legislative process and is the most “tea party” oriented candidate.

Rick Santorum is a strong social and fiscal conservative with a great record of success in the Senate.

Newt Gingrich, accurately nailed by Michelle Bachman last week in an interview with Glenn Beck as the “frugal socialist,” is also a proven leader who halted the Clinton march toward economic devastation and would absolutely pick Obama apart in a debate, something we’d all like to watch.

Ron Paul, a military and foreign policy isolationist and social liberal, is strong on economics and the Federal Reserve.

Rick Perry is a proven conservative with an outstanding record of success in Texas and the most Reaganesque according to Michael Reagan and me.

Another thing we need to realize is that this primary process and the debates, while messy and ugly, are inoculating and strengthening our candidates by bringing everything out in the open and giving them an opportunity to hone their debate skills. One man who has taken full advantage of the opportunity is Texas Governor Rick Perry, who never debated very often while running for office in Texas.

And speaking of Rick Perry, he may be just the man to defy conventional wisdom and stand political punditry on its head. He might actually be able to run right up the middle of the field between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney the way John Kerry did in 2004 between then Democrat frontrunners Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, according to George Will speaking on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.

The strategy goes something like this; Romney has to go after Gingrich because Gingrich is now the frontrunner and drawing support from Romney. Gingrich will have to defend himself by attacking Romney, as we saw during the ABC-hosted debate in Iowa Saturday night. As the two frontrunners pick each other apart that leaves an opening for a true conservative with sufficient financial backing such as Rick Perry. And, it doesn’t hurt that Governor Perry found his sea legs Saturday night in Iowa and had his strongest debate showing to date.

Some consider this a ludicrous scenario given Gingrich’s apparent commanding lead in the polls right now and Perry’s relatively low rating, but we all know 29 days is an eternity in politics in general and this volatile Republican primary in particular, and polls can be very dangerous and meaningless things if you just look at them on the surface. Here is an example.

A recent New York Times/CBS poll has former Speaker Newt Gingrich with an apparent wide lead in Iowa for the upcoming Republican Caucus. Here is the lead paragraph of the article from the New York Times:

In Iowa, Gingrich Is Gaining Favor, New Poll Shows By JEFF ZELENY and MARJORIE CONNELLY Published: December 6, 2011

DES MOINES — Newt Gingrich enters the final four weeks of campaigning before the Iowa caucuses with Republican voters in the state viewing him as more prepared to be president than Mitt Romney, more attuned to their concerns and just as capable of defeating President Obama, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

But two-thirds of likely voters remain open to changing their minds, the poll found, with even more saying they are willing to embrace a candidate who is less conservative than they are in order to win the White House. And a large majority of voters say economic concerns are more important than social issues or immigration, suggesting that Mr. Romney has ample opportunity to make his case to voters.

The NY Times sees the lack of commitment from Iowa Republicans as an opening for Mitt Romney, but it is actually a blessing for Rick Perry.

Let’s set aside for a moment the not-so-small fact that Mitt Romney has not been able to make that case in the past 6 years or so and has not been able to take anything resembling a strong lead in the GOP primary despite no apparent debate gaffes, no stumbles, no “brain freezes” and even being declared the winner of just about every debate. He has just never been able to connect with a good majority of voters and has trailed Perry, Bachman, Cain and now Gingrich at different times during this primary.

Moreover, the dirty little secret is that Iowa Republicans don’t have to settle for someone less conservative than themselves. According to the poll Rick Perry only has to demonstrate to them that he can beat Obama. That’s it, that’s his entire mission now in Iowa.

Rick Perry has a strong record of economic success in Texas and one of the issues that hurt him in the early debates was immigration (the in-state tuition canard and the “you have no heart” moment). But for two-thirds of Iowa voters immigration may be off the table and Perry’s strong economic success with the world’s 14th largest economy may propel him into 3rd or even 2nd place, if he can convince Iowa Republicans that he can defeat President Obama.

Additionally, Rick Perry is a prolific fundraiser and will have the funds necessary to keep going after Iowa. He also stabilized from his early debate gaffes, something President Reagan had to do.

Now, here is what Tim Griffin wrote at Redstate.com after the Saturday night debate in Iowa:

All three conservatives on stage (Governor Perry, Representative Bachmann and Senator Santorum) had great nights. But Perry is the guy who has hit his stride, is our voice, possesses the war chest and has built the infrastructure to bring home the W. Let’s jump in.

As we have seen over the past many months nothing in this GOP primary is carved in stone and there have been as many lead changes as a NASCAR race. And while Republicans do want someone they feel confident can beat Obama they are also still stinging over picking the proverbial moderate in the 2008 primary in-line with conventional wisdom and loosing in a big way to our current Armature-in-Chief.

In the back of their collective mind conservative Republicans know the old saying, fool me once – shame on you; fool me twice – shame on me.

Michelle Bachman and Rick Santorum are good but don’t have “it.” Rick Perry is everything that Bachman and Santorum are but he also has “it,” as well as a proven record of success as a conservative chief executive. He also has an opening in Iowa with his only mission now being to convince Iowa Republicans that he can defeat Obama.

As we have all seen already, conventional wisdom doesn’t necessarily hold up in this GOP primary and Rick Perry may be just the man to beat that conventional wisdom next year.

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2 posted on 12/12/2011 6:44:12 AM PST by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)

Bump for Rick Perry!

You’re doing a great job, shield! Good morning.

I think Perry is recovering enough from his back surgery to get his game on. I really don’t know how he went out on the campaign trail after having surgury in July. Now people are going to see the real Perry.

4 posted on 12/12/2011 6:50:34 AM PST by McGavin999 ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)

I have stood by Perry through thick and thin. You cannot beat his energy and job policies! Love the guy!

A lot more support Rick Perry than is being reported. A poll that is more trustworthy than what the push polls are reporting have Perry at 48% and Newt at 17%.

6 posted on 12/12/2011 6:58:16 AM PST by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)

Great Article.

Thanks Shield.

I truly believe that Gov Perry is the right man at the right time.

What a huge contrast to what we have in WH now.

I’m FED UP too Governor Perry!

Rick Perry for President 2012!!!

I'm at the point where I'd rather see Perry as Secretary of Energy than POTUS. He has made waaaay too many blunders not just at the debates but in casual conversations and in other candidate forums to be a reliable candidate for the top job. I was 100% for him when he first got in, but he ripped himself apart from then on. I can't support him in the primary. However no matter whom the nominee is, (even Romney ~holding nose~) I'll vote and probably volunteer locally, because we have to remove Obozo before he completes the destruction of this nation.

9 posted on 12/12/2011 7:17:52 AM PST by ExSoldier ("Life without God is like an unsharpened pencil: It has no point.")

Great column!

And it has a good chance of happening.

Go Perry!

11 posted on 12/12/2011 7:21:59 AM PST by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)

Wow. That is a great column. This guy gets it completely.

Thanks for posting.

NO WAY. He thinks DC is a seedy place and would never leave being the Governor of Texas for anything in DC except as POTUS. He is human and more like you and me than the others. The others are pretenders, not Perry. He’ll done just fine as President and on his way to the WH, he’ll eat Obama alive.

13 posted on 12/12/2011 7:27:15 AM PST by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)

Yes, Steve does see it like it is and actually writes about it.

14 posted on 12/12/2011 7:41:02 AM PST by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)

I have stood by Perry through thick and thin.

I stuck with him through, um, thick, but went over to Cain when things got thin. Will probably come back now. I do love listening to Newt, but I just can't trust him to govern conservatively. I don't get to vote till June, but will watch Perry with interest.

15 posted on 12/12/2011 7:48:01 AM PST by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)

I do love listening to Newt, but I just can't trust him to govern conservatively.

If Newt were to become president, I have to wonder how his past relationships in Congress would affect his ability to influence. I was a little surprised to hear Tom Coburn(R) of Oklahoma pretty much object to him becoming president. You have to know there are others who share Coburn's sentiments.

Perry CAN win..but to do so he has to get it to a two man race..he and Newt..( actually a three man, as I expect that Paul will stay in towards the end.)

17 posted on 12/12/2011 8:27:55 AM PST by ken5050 (Support Admin Mods: Doing the tough, hard, dirty jobs that Americans won't do...)

18 posted on 12/12/2011 8:34:21 AM PST by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)

The interesting thing is that the Anarchists are closing down the ports today.

Which candidate would put an end to this crap.

Which candidate would put an end to this crap.

Perry in a heartbeat like Reagan acted when confronted by PATCO.

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